Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.52%
Fair Odds 2.98
Draw
26.91%
Fair Odds 3.72
Away Win
39.57%
Fair Odds 2.53
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.0% Fair Odds 8.33

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.98 —
Draw 3.72 —
Away Win 2.53 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.0% 8.33
2 0-1 9.02% 11.08
3 1-2 8.64% 11.57
4 1-0 8.33% 12.0
5 2-1 7.98% 12.53
6 0-2 6.5% 15.39
7 0-0 6.27% 15.96
8 2-2 5.75% 17.4
9 2-0 5.54% 18.04
10 1-3 4.15% 24.11
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.27%
15.96
9.02%
11.08
6.5%
15.39
3.12%
32.07
1.12%
89.08
0.32%
309.31
1
8.33%
12.0
12.0%
8.33
8.64%
11.57
4.15%
24.11
1.49%
66.97
0.43%
232.56
2
5.54%
18.04
7.98%
12.53
5.75%
17.4
2.76%
36.26
0.99%
100.72
0.29%
349.65
3
2.46%
40.7
3.54%
28.26
2.55%
39.26
1.22%
81.78
0.44%
227.17
0.13%
788.64
4
0.82%
122.4
1.18%
85.01
0.85%
118.06
0.41%
245.94
0.15%
683.06
0.04%
2369.67
5
0.22%
460.19
0.31%
319.59
0.23%
443.85
0.11%
925.07
0.04%
2570.69
0.01%
8928.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.62% · Fair: 162.52
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.27% 15.96
1 17.36% 5.76
2 24.04% 4.16
3 22.20% 4.51
4 15.37% 6.51
5+ 14.77% 6.77
Over 2.5 52.34% Under 2.5 47.66%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.52%
Draw 26.91%
Away Win 39.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.34%
Under 2.5 47.66%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.13%
No 43.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.44% 18.37 10.04% 9.96 84.51% 1.18
-1.5 15.49% 6.46 — 84.51% 1.18
-1.0 15.49% 6.46 19.31% 5.18 65.2% 1.53
-0.5 34.8% 2.87 — 65.2% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.8% 2.87 25.39% 3.94 39.81% 2.51
+0.5 60.19% 1.66 — 39.81% 2.51
+1.0 60.19% 1.66 20.91% 4.78 18.9% 5.29
+1.5 81.1% 1.23 — 18.9% 5.29
+2.0 81.1% 1.23 11.77% 8.49 7.13% 14.03

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.