Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.27%
Fair Odds 3.42
Draw
27.61%
Fair Odds 3.62
Away Win
43.11%
Fair Odds 2.32
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.41% Fair Odds 8.06

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.42 —
Draw 3.62 —
Away Win 2.32 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.41% 8.06
2 0-1 10.7% 9.35
3 1-2 8.93% 11.19
4 1-0 8.62% 11.61
5 0-2 7.7% 12.99
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 2-1 7.2% 13.9
8 2-2 5.18% 19.3
9 2-0 5.0% 20.01
10 1-3 4.29% 23.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
10.7%
9.35
7.7%
12.99
3.7%
27.05
1.33%
75.15
0.38%
260.96
1
8.62%
11.61
12.41%
8.06
8.93%
11.19
4.29%
23.32
1.54%
64.78
0.44%
224.92
2
5.0%
20.01
7.2%
13.9
5.18%
19.3
2.49%
40.21
0.9%
111.69
0.26%
387.9
3
1.93%
51.75
2.78%
35.94
2.0%
49.92
0.96%
103.99
0.35%
288.85
0.1%
1003.01
4
0.56%
178.48
0.81%
123.93
0.58%
172.12
0.28%
358.55
0.1%
996.02
0.03%
3460.21
5
0.13%
769.23
0.19%
534.19
0.13%
741.84
0.06%
1545.6
0.02%
4291.85
0.01%
14925.37
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.49% · Fair: 202.96
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.65% 31.35%
1.5 32.29% 67.71%
2.5 11.2% 88.8%
3.5 3.04% 96.96%
4.5 0.68% 99.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.27%
Draw 27.61%
Away Win 43.11%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.39%
No 47.61%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.87% 25.83 8.43% 11.86 87.7% 1.14
-1.5 12.3% 8.13 — 87.7% 1.14
-1.0 12.3% 8.13 18.12% 5.52 69.58% 1.44
-0.5 30.42% 3.29 — 69.58% 1.44
0 (PK) 30.42% 3.29 26.08% 3.83 43.5% 2.3
+0.5 56.5% 1.77 — 43.5% 2.3
+1.0 56.5% 1.77 22.49% 4.45 21.0% 4.76
+1.5 79.0% 1.27 — 21.0% 4.76
+2.0 79.0% 1.27 12.99% 7.7 8.01% 12.48

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.