Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
23.92%
Fair Odds 4.18
Draw
28.23%
Fair Odds 3.54
Away Win
47.85%
Fair Odds 2.09
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.19% Fair Odds 7.58

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.18 —
Draw 3.54 —
Away Win 2.09 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.19% 7.58
2 1-1 12.53% 7.98
3 0-2 9.5% 10.53
4 0-0 9.16% 10.91
5 1-2 9.03% 11.08
6 1-0 8.7% 11.49
7 2-1 5.95% 16.8
8 0-3 4.56% 21.93
9 1-3 4.33% 23.08
10 2-2 4.29% 23.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.16%
10.91
13.19%
7.58
9.5%
10.53
4.56%
21.93
1.64%
60.92
0.47%
211.51
1
8.7%
11.49
12.53%
7.98
9.03%
11.08
4.33%
23.08
1.56%
64.12
0.45%
222.67
2
4.13%
24.18
5.95%
16.8
4.29%
23.33
2.06%
48.6
0.74%
134.99
0.21%
468.82
3
1.31%
76.37
1.89%
53.04
1.36%
73.66
0.65%
153.47
0.23%
426.26
0.07%
1479.29
4
0.31%
321.54
0.45%
223.31
0.32%
310.17
0.15%
645.99
0.06%
1795.33
0.02%
6250.0
5
0.06%
1692.05
0.09%
1175.09
0.06%
1631.32
0.03%
3401.36
0.01%
9433.96
0.0%
33333.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.41% · Fair: 242.78
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 61.33% 38.67%
1.5 24.59% 75.41%
2.5 7.13% 92.87%
3.5 1.61% 98.39%
4.5 0.29% 99.71%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.16% 10.91
1 21.90% 4.57
2 26.17% 3.82
3 20.85% 4.80
4 12.46% 8.03
5+ 9.46% 10.57
Over 2.5 42.77% Under 2.5 57.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 23.92%
Draw 28.23%
Away Win 47.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 42.77%
Under 2.5 57.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.8%
No 53.2%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.32% 43.16 6.37% 15.69 91.31% 1.1
-1.5 8.69% 11.51 — 91.31% 1.1
-1.0 8.69% 11.51 16.18% 6.18 75.13% 1.33
-0.5 24.87% 4.02 — 75.13% 1.33
0 (PK) 24.87% 4.02 26.7% 3.75 48.43% 2.06
+0.5 51.57% 1.94 — 48.43% 2.06
+1.0 51.57% 1.94 24.53% 4.08 23.9% 4.18
+1.5 76.1% 1.31 — 23.9% 4.18
+2.0 76.1% 1.31 14.64% 6.83 9.26% 10.8

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.