Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
22.63%
Fair Odds 4.42
Draw
28.33%
Fair Odds 3.53
Away Win
49.04%
Fair Odds 2.04
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.87% Fair Odds 7.21

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.42 —
Draw 3.53 —
Away Win 2.04 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.87% 7.21
2 1-1 12.48% 8.01
3 0-2 9.99% 10.01
4 0-0 9.63% 10.38
5 1-2 8.99% 11.13
6 1-0 8.67% 11.53
7 2-1 5.62% 17.8
8 0-3 4.79% 20.86
9 1-3 4.31% 23.18
10 2-2 4.04% 24.72
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.63%
10.38
13.87%
7.21
9.99%
10.01
4.79%
20.86
1.73%
57.94
0.5%
201.21
1
8.67%
11.53
12.48%
8.01
8.99%
11.13
4.31%
23.18
1.55%
64.38
0.45%
223.56
2
3.9%
25.63
5.62%
17.8
4.04%
24.72
1.94%
51.51
0.7%
143.08
0.2%
496.77
3
1.17%
85.44
1.69%
59.34
1.21%
82.41
0.58%
171.67
0.21%
476.87
0.06%
1655.63
4
0.26%
379.79
0.38%
263.71
0.27%
366.3
0.13%
762.78
0.05%
2118.64
0.01%
7352.94
5
0.05%
2109.7
0.07%
1464.13
0.05%
2036.66
0.02%
4237.29
0.01%
11764.71
0.0%
41666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.4% · Fair: 249.5
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 59.34% 40.66%
1.5 22.75% 77.25%
2.5 6.29% 93.71%
3.5 1.35% 98.65%
4.5 0.23% 99.77%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.63% 10.38
1 22.54% 4.44
2 26.37% 3.79
3 20.57% 4.86
4 12.03% 8.31
5+ 8.85% 11.30
Over 2.5 41.45% Under 2.5 58.55%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 22.63%
Draw 28.33%
Away Win 49.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.45%
Under 2.5 58.55%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.28%
No 54.72%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.01% 49.74 5.88% 16.99 92.11% 1.09
-1.5 7.89% 12.67 — 92.11% 1.09
-1.0 7.89% 12.67 15.64% 6.39 76.46% 1.31
-0.5 23.54% 4.25 — 76.46% 1.31
0 (PK) 23.54% 4.25 26.79% 3.73 49.67% 2.01
+0.5 50.33% 1.99 — 49.67% 2.01
+1.0 50.33% 1.99 25.03% 4.0 24.65% 4.06
+1.5 75.35% 1.33 — 24.65% 4.06
+2.0 75.35% 1.33 15.06% 6.64 9.58% 10.44

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.