Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.09%
Fair Odds 2.38
Draw
25.38%
Fair Odds 3.94
Away Win
32.53%
Fair Odds 3.07
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.93% Fair Odds 9.15

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.38 —
Draw 3.94 —
Away Win 3.07 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.93% 9.15
2 2-1 8.91% 11.23
3 1-2 7.81% 12.8
4 1-0 7.64% 13.08
5 0-1 6.71% 14.91
6 2-2 6.37% 15.7
7 2-0 6.23% 16.05
8 3-1 4.84% 20.66
9 0-2 4.79% 20.86
10 0-0 4.69% 21.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.69%
21.33
6.71%
14.91
4.79%
20.86
2.29%
43.76
0.82%
122.41
0.23%
428.08
1
7.64%
13.08
10.93%
9.15
7.81%
12.8
3.72%
26.85
1.33%
75.1
0.38%
262.61
2
6.23%
16.05
8.91%
11.23
6.37%
15.7
3.04%
32.94
1.09%
92.14
0.31%
322.16
3
3.38%
29.55
4.84%
20.66
3.46%
28.9
1.65%
60.63
0.59%
169.58
0.17%
593.12
4
1.38%
72.51
1.97%
50.71
1.41%
70.92
0.67%
148.79
0.24%
416.15
0.07%
1455.6
5
0.45%
222.42
0.64%
155.55
0.46%
217.53
0.22%
456.41
0.08%
1277.14
0.02%
4464.29
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.01% · Fair: 98.92
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.41% 19.59%
1.5 48.47% 51.53%
2.5 22.44% 77.56%
3.5 8.3% 91.7%
4.5 2.54% 97.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.69% 21.33
1 14.35% 6.97
2 21.95% 4.56
3 22.39% 4.47
4 17.13% 5.84
5+ 19.49% 5.13
Over 2.5 59.01% Under 2.5 40.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.09%
Draw 25.38%
Away Win 32.53%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.01%
Under 2.5 40.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.16%
No 38.84%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.92% 11.22 12.72% 7.86 78.36% 1.28
-1.5 21.64% 4.62 — 78.36% 1.28
-1.0 21.64% 4.62 20.77% 4.82 57.6% 1.74
-0.5 42.4% 2.36 — 57.6% 1.74
0 (PK) 42.4% 2.36 23.9% 4.18 33.7% 2.97
+0.5 66.3% 1.51 — 33.7% 2.97
+1.0 66.3% 1.51 18.22% 5.49 15.48% 6.46
+1.5 84.52% 1.18 — 15.48% 6.46
+2.0 84.52% 1.18 9.79% 10.21 5.69% 17.58

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.