Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.51%
Fair Odds 2.53
Draw
26.0%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
34.49%
Fair Odds 2.9
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.38% Fair Odds 8.79

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.53 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 2.9 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.38% 8.79
2 2-1 8.65% 11.57
3 1-2 8.13% 12.29
4 1-0 7.96% 12.57
5 0-1 7.48% 13.36
6 2-2 6.18% 16.18
7 2-0 6.05% 16.54
8 0-2 5.35% 18.69
9 0-0 5.23% 19.11
10 3-1 4.38% 22.83
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.23%
19.11
7.48%
13.36
5.35%
18.69
2.55%
39.2
0.91%
109.66
0.26%
383.44
1
7.96%
12.57
11.38%
8.79
8.13%
12.29
3.88%
25.79
1.39%
72.14
0.4%
252.27
2
6.05%
16.54
8.65%
11.57
6.18%
16.18
2.95%
33.94
1.05%
94.92
0.3%
331.9
3
3.06%
32.64
4.38%
22.83
3.13%
31.93
1.49%
66.98
0.53%
187.34
0.15%
654.88
4
1.16%
85.9
1.66%
60.07
1.19%
84.02
0.57%
176.24
0.2%
493.1
0.06%
1724.14
5
0.35%
282.57
0.51%
197.59
0.36%
276.4
0.17%
579.71
0.06%
1620.75
0.02%
5681.82
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.83% · Fair: 120.88
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.23% 19.11
1 15.44% 6.48
2 22.77% 4.39
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.52% 6.05
5+ 17.64% 5.67
Over 2.5 56.55% Under 2.5 43.45%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.51%
Draw 26.00%
Away Win 34.49%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.55%
Under 2.5 43.45%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.43%
No 40.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.57% 13.22 11.81% 8.47 80.63% 1.24
-1.5 19.37% 5.16 — 80.63% 1.24
-1.0 19.37% 5.16 20.37% 4.91 60.26% 1.66
-0.5 39.74% 2.52 — 60.26% 1.66
0 (PK) 39.74% 2.52 24.51% 4.08 35.75% 2.8
+0.5 64.25% 1.56 — 35.75% 2.8
+1.0 64.25% 1.56 19.16% 5.22 16.59% 6.03
+1.5 83.41% 1.2 — 16.59% 6.03
+2.0 83.41% 1.2 10.45% 9.57 6.14% 16.28

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.