Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.28%
Fair Odds 2.55
Draw
26.06%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
34.67%
Fair Odds 2.88
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.42% Fair Odds 8.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.55 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 2.88 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.42% 8.76
2 2-1 8.62% 11.6
3 1-2 8.16% 12.25
4 1-0 7.98% 12.53
5 0-1 7.56% 13.23
6 2-2 6.16% 16.23
7 2-0 6.03% 16.59
8 0-2 5.41% 18.5
9 0-0 5.29% 18.92
10 3-1 4.34% 23.05
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
7.56%
13.23
5.41%
18.5
2.58%
38.81
0.92%
108.57
0.26%
379.65
1
7.98%
12.53
11.42%
8.76
8.16%
12.25
3.89%
25.7
1.39%
71.9
0.4%
251.38
2
6.03%
16.59
8.62%
11.6
6.16%
16.23
2.94%
34.04
1.05%
95.23
0.3%
333.0
3
3.03%
32.96
4.34%
23.05
3.1%
32.24
1.48%
67.64
0.53%
189.18
0.15%
661.38
4
1.15%
87.32
1.64%
61.06
1.17%
85.4
0.56%
179.18
0.2%
501.25
0.06%
1751.31
5
0.35%
289.18
0.49%
202.18
0.35%
282.81
0.17%
593.12
0.06%
1658.37
0.02%
5813.95
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.81% · Fair: 123.08
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.91% 22.09%
1.5 44.55% 55.45%
2.5 19.37% 80.63%
3.5 6.69% 93.31%
4.5 1.9% 98.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.28%
Draw 26.06%
Away Win 34.67%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.26%
No 40.74%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.45% 13.43 11.72% 8.53 80.83% 1.24
-1.5 19.17% 5.22 — 80.83% 1.24
-1.0 19.17% 5.22 20.33% 4.92 60.51% 1.65
-0.5 39.49% 2.53 — 60.51% 1.65
0 (PK) 39.49% 2.53 24.56% 4.07 35.94% 2.78
+0.5 64.05% 1.56 — 35.94% 2.78
+1.0 64.05% 1.56 19.25% 5.2 16.7% 5.99
+1.5 83.3% 1.2 — 16.7% 5.99
+2.0 83.3% 1.2 10.51% 9.51 6.18% 16.17

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.