Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.46%
Fair Odds 2.99
Draw
27.02%
Fair Odds 3.7
Away Win
39.53%
Fair Odds 2.53
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.07% Fair Odds 8.29

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.99 —
Draw 3.7 —
Away Win 2.53 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.07% 8.29
2 0-1 9.14% 10.94
3 1-2 8.63% 11.59
4 1-0 8.44% 11.85
5 2-1 7.96% 12.56
6 0-2 6.54% 15.3
7 0-0 6.39% 15.64
8 2-2 5.69% 17.56
9 2-0 5.57% 17.96
10 1-3 4.11% 24.32
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.39%
15.64
9.14%
10.94
6.54%
15.3
3.12%
32.1
1.11%
89.78
0.32%
313.87
1
8.44%
11.85
12.07%
8.29
8.63%
11.59
4.11%
24.32
1.47%
68.01
0.42%
237.81
2
5.57%
17.96
7.96%
12.56
5.69%
17.56
2.71%
36.84
0.97%
103.05
0.28%
360.36
3
2.45%
40.81
3.5%
28.54
2.51%
39.91
1.19%
83.73
0.43%
234.19
0.12%
819.0
4
0.81%
123.66
1.16%
86.48
0.83%
120.95
0.39%
253.74
0.14%
709.72
0.04%
2481.39
5
0.21%
468.38
0.31%
327.55
0.22%
458.09
0.1%
961.54
0.04%
2688.17
0.01%
9433.96
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.59% · Fair: 168.24
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.29% 26.71%
1.5 38.02% 61.98%
2.5 14.75% 85.25%
3.5 4.51% 95.49%
4.5 1.13% 98.87%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.39% 15.64
1 17.58% 5.69
2 24.17% 4.14
3 22.16% 4.51
4 15.23% 6.56
5+ 14.46% 6.91
Over 2.5 51.85% Under 2.5 48.15%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.46%
Draw 27.02%
Away Win 39.53%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.85%
Under 2.5 48.15%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.75%
No 44.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.38% 18.58 10.01% 9.99 84.61% 1.18
-1.5 15.39% 6.5 — 84.61% 1.18
-1.0 15.39% 6.5 19.34% 5.17 65.26% 1.53
-0.5 34.74% 2.88 — 65.26% 1.53
0 (PK) 34.74% 2.88 25.5% 3.92 39.76% 2.51
+0.5 60.24% 1.66 — 39.76% 2.51
+1.0 60.24% 1.66 20.95% 4.77 18.81% 5.32
+1.5 81.19% 1.23 — 18.81% 5.32
+2.0 81.19% 1.23 11.75% 8.51 7.06% 14.17

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.