Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.2%
Fair Odds 3.31
Draw
27.58%
Fair Odds 3.63
Away Win
42.22%
Fair Odds 2.37
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.39% Fair Odds 8.07

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.31 —
Draw 3.63 —
Away Win 2.37 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.39% 8.07
2 0-1 10.41% 9.61
3 1-2 8.86% 11.29
4 1-0 8.66% 11.54
5 0-2 7.44% 13.43
6 2-1 7.37% 13.57
7 0-0 7.28% 13.74
8 2-2 5.27% 18.97
9 2-0 5.15% 19.4
10 1-3 4.22% 23.68
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.28%
13.74
10.41%
9.61
7.44%
13.43
3.55%
28.18
1.27%
78.83
0.36%
275.63
1
8.66%
11.54
12.39%
8.07
8.86%
11.29
4.22%
23.68
1.51%
66.25
0.43%
231.64
2
5.15%
19.4
7.37%
13.57
5.27%
18.97
2.51%
39.8
0.9%
111.35
0.26%
389.26
3
2.04%
48.91
2.92%
34.2
2.09%
47.83
1.0%
100.35
0.36%
280.66
0.1%
981.35
4
0.61%
164.39
0.87%
114.96
0.62%
160.77
0.3%
337.27
0.11%
943.4
0.03%
3300.33
5
0.14%
690.61
0.21%
483.09
0.15%
675.68
0.07%
1416.43
0.03%
3968.25
0.01%
13888.89
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.5% · Fair: 200.8
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.28% 13.74
1 19.07% 5.24
2 24.99% 4.00
3 21.82% 4.58
4 14.29% 7.00
5+ 12.54% 7.97
Over 2.5 48.66% Under 2.5 51.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.20%
Draw 27.58%
Away Win 42.22%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.66%
Under 2.5 51.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.93%
No 47.07%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.16% 24.04 8.78% 11.39 87.06% 1.15
-1.5 12.94% 7.73 — 87.06% 1.15
-1.0 12.94% 7.73 18.45% 5.42 68.62% 1.46
-0.5 31.38% 3.19 — 68.62% 1.46
0 (PK) 31.38% 3.19 26.05% 3.84 42.57% 2.35
+0.5 57.43% 1.74 — 42.57% 2.35
+1.0 57.43% 1.74 22.17% 4.51 20.4% 4.9
+1.5 79.6% 1.26 — 20.4% 4.9
+2.0 79.6% 1.26 12.67% 7.89 7.72% 12.95

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.