Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.75%
Fair Odds 2.34
Draw
25.29%
Fair Odds 3.95
Away Win
31.96%
Fair Odds 3.13
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.88% Fair Odds 9.19

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.34 —
Draw 3.95 —
Away Win 3.13 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.88% 9.19
2 2-1 8.97% 11.14
3 1-2 7.72% 12.95
4 1-0 7.66% 13.06
5 0-1 6.59% 15.17
6 2-2 6.37% 15.7
7 2-0 6.32% 15.83
8 3-1 4.94% 20.26
9 0-2 4.68% 21.37
10 0-0 4.64% 21.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.64%
21.54
6.59%
15.17
4.68%
21.37
2.22%
45.14
0.79%
127.16
0.22%
447.83
1
7.66%
13.06
10.88%
9.19
7.72%
12.95
3.66%
27.36
1.3%
77.07
0.37%
271.37
2
6.32%
15.83
8.97%
11.14
6.37%
15.7
3.02%
33.16
1.07%
93.41
0.3%
328.95
3
3.48%
28.77
4.94%
20.26
3.5%
28.54
1.66%
60.29
0.59%
169.84
0.17%
598.09
4
1.43%
69.75
2.04%
49.12
1.45%
69.19
0.68%
146.16
0.24%
411.69
0.07%
1449.28
5
0.47%
211.37
0.67%
148.85
0.48%
209.64
0.23%
442.87
0.08%
1248.44
0.02%
4385.96
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.04% · Fair: 96.4
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.79% 19.2%
1.5 49.11% 50.89%
2.5 22.96% 77.04%
3.5 8.59% 91.41%
4.5 2.65% 97.35%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.64% 21.54
1 14.25% 7.02
2 21.88% 4.57
3 22.39% 4.47
4 17.18% 5.82
5+ 19.66% 5.09
Over 2.5 59.23% Under 2.5 40.77%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.75%
Draw 25.29%
Away Win 31.96%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.23%
Under 2.5 40.77%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.27%
No 38.73%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.23% 10.83 12.95% 7.72 77.82% 1.29
-1.5 22.18% 4.51 — 77.82% 1.29
-1.0 22.18% 4.51 20.91% 4.78 56.91% 1.76
-0.5 43.09% 2.32 — 56.91% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.09% 2.32 23.82% 4.2 33.1% 3.02
+0.5 66.9% 1.49 — 33.1% 3.02
+1.0 66.9% 1.49 17.99% 5.56 15.1% 6.62
+1.5 84.9% 1.18 — 15.1% 6.62
+2.0 84.9% 1.18 9.59% 10.43 5.51% 18.14

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.