Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.52%
Fair Odds 2.35
Draw
25.35%
Fair Odds 3.94
Away Win
32.13%
Fair Odds 3.11
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.92% Fair Odds 9.16

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.35 —
Draw 3.94 —
Away Win 3.11 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.92% 9.16
2 2-1 8.95% 11.17
3 1-2 7.75% 12.9
4 1-0 7.69% 13.0
5 0-1 6.66% 15.02
6 2-2 6.36% 15.73
7 2-0 6.31% 15.86
8 3-1 4.89% 20.43
9 0-2 4.73% 21.15
10 0-0 4.69% 21.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.69%
21.33
6.66%
15.02
4.73%
21.15
2.24%
44.69
0.79%
125.9
0.23%
443.26
1
7.69%
13.0
10.92%
9.16
7.75%
12.9
3.67%
27.25
1.3%
76.76
0.37%
270.27
2
6.31%
15.86
8.95%
11.17
6.36%
15.73
3.01%
33.23
1.07%
93.62
0.3%
329.6
3
3.45%
29.01
4.89%
20.43
3.48%
28.77
1.65%
60.79
0.58%
171.23
0.17%
603.14
4
1.41%
70.76
2.01%
49.83
1.42%
70.18
0.67%
148.28
0.24%
417.71
0.07%
1470.59
5
0.46%
215.7
0.66%
151.93
0.47%
213.95
0.22%
452.08
0.08%
1273.89
0.02%
4484.3
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.02% · Fair: 98.26
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.6% 19.4%
1.5 48.79% 51.21%
2.5 22.7% 77.3%
3.5 8.44% 91.56%
4.5 2.6% 97.4%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.69% 21.33
1 14.35% 6.97
2 21.95% 4.56
3 22.39% 4.47
4 17.13% 5.84
5+ 19.49% 5.13
Over 2.5 59.01% Under 2.5 40.99%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.52%
Draw 25.35%
Away Win 32.13%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.01%
Under 2.5 40.99%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.12%
No 38.88%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.1% 10.99 12.87% 7.77 78.03% 1.28
-1.5 21.97% 4.55 — 78.03% 1.28
-1.0 21.97% 4.55 20.88% 4.79 57.15% 1.75
-0.5 42.85% 2.33 — 57.15% 1.75
0 (PK) 42.85% 2.33 23.87% 4.19 33.28% 3.01
+0.5 66.72% 1.5 — 33.28% 3.01
+1.0 66.72% 1.5 18.08% 5.53 15.2% 6.58
+1.5 84.8% 1.18 — 15.2% 6.58
+2.0 84.8% 1.18 9.65% 10.36 5.55% 18.01

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.