Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.12%
Fair Odds 2.43
Draw
25.7%
Fair Odds 3.89
Away Win
33.17%
Fair Odds 3.01
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.17% Fair Odds 8.95

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.43 —
Draw 3.89 —
Away Win 3.01 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.17% 8.95
2 2-1 8.82% 11.33
3 1-2 7.93% 12.61
4 1-0 7.87% 12.71
5 0-1 7.07% 14.14
6 2-2 6.27% 15.96
7 2-0 6.21% 16.09
8 0-2 5.02% 19.92
9 0-0 4.98% 20.09
10 3-1 4.65% 21.52
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.98%
20.09
7.07%
14.14
5.02%
19.92
2.38%
42.09
0.84%
118.57
0.24%
417.54
1
7.87%
12.71
11.17%
8.95
7.93%
12.61
3.75%
26.64
1.33%
75.04
0.38%
264.2
2
6.21%
16.09
8.82%
11.33
6.27%
15.96
2.97%
33.72
1.05%
94.98
0.3%
334.45
3
3.27%
30.55
4.65%
21.52
3.3%
30.3
1.56%
64.02
0.55%
180.34
0.16%
634.92
4
1.29%
77.35
1.84%
54.47
1.3%
76.72
0.62%
162.1
0.22%
456.62
0.06%
1607.72
5
0.41%
244.8
0.58%
172.38
0.41%
242.78
0.19%
512.82
0.07%
1445.09
0.02%
5076.14
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.91% · Fair: 109.87
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.4% 20.6%
1.5 46.86% 53.14%
2.5 21.15% 78.85%
3.5 7.61% 92.39%
4.5 2.26% 97.74%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.98% 20.09
1 14.94% 6.70
2 22.40% 4.46
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.80% 5.95
5+ 18.47% 5.41
Over 2.5 57.68% Under 2.5 42.32%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.12%
Draw 25.70%
Away Win 33.17%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.68%
Under 2.5 42.32%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.21%
No 39.79%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.34% 11.98 12.38% 8.08 79.28% 1.26
-1.5 20.72% 4.83 — 79.28% 1.26
-1.0 20.72% 4.83 20.68% 4.84 58.59% 1.71
-0.5 41.41% 2.42 — 58.59% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.41% 2.42 24.22% 4.13 34.38% 2.91
+0.5 65.62% 1.52 — 34.38% 2.91
+1.0 65.62% 1.52 18.59% 5.38 15.79% 6.33
+1.5 84.21% 1.19 — 15.79% 6.33
+2.0 84.21% 1.19 10.0% 10.0 5.79% 17.27

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.