Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.71%
Fair Odds 2.52
Draw
26.04%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
34.25%
Fair Odds 2.92
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.41% Fair Odds 8.76

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.52 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 2.92 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.41% 8.76
2 2-1 8.67% 11.53
3 1-2 8.1% 12.34
4 1-0 8.04% 12.44
5 0-1 7.51% 13.32
6 2-2 6.16% 16.24
7 2-0 6.11% 16.37
8 0-2 5.33% 18.76
9 0-0 5.29% 18.92
10 3-1 4.39% 22.76
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
7.51%
13.32
5.33%
18.76
2.52%
39.64
0.9%
111.66
0.25%
393.08
1
8.04%
12.44
11.41%
8.76
8.1%
12.34
3.83%
26.08
1.36%
73.46
0.39%
258.67
2
6.11%
16.37
8.67%
11.53
6.16%
16.24
2.91%
34.31
1.03%
96.66
0.29%
340.37
3
3.09%
32.32
4.39%
22.76
3.12%
32.06
1.48%
67.72
0.52%
190.77
0.15%
671.59
4
1.18%
85.05
1.67%
59.89
1.19%
84.35
0.56%
178.22
0.2%
502.01
0.06%
1766.78
5
0.36%
279.8
0.51%
197.01
0.36%
277.47
0.17%
586.17
0.06%
1650.17
0.02%
5813.95
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.82% · Fair: 122.61
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.71%
Draw 26.04%
Away Win 34.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.24%
No 40.76%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.62% 13.13 11.87% 8.42 80.51% 1.24
-1.5 19.49% 5.13 — 80.51% 1.24
-1.0 19.49% 5.13 20.45% 4.89 60.06% 1.67
-0.5 39.94% 2.5 — 60.06% 1.67
0 (PK) 39.94% 2.5 24.55% 4.07 35.51% 2.82
+0.5 64.49% 1.55 — 35.51% 2.82
+1.0 64.49% 1.55 19.11% 5.23 16.4% 6.1
+1.5 83.6% 1.2 — 16.4% 6.1
+2.0 83.6% 1.2 10.36% 9.65 6.04% 16.56

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.