Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.62%
Fair Odds 2.81
Draw
26.69%
Fair Odds 3.75
Away Win
37.7%
Fair Odds 2.65
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.85% Fair Odds 8.44

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.81 —
Draw 3.75 —
Away Win 2.65 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.85% 8.44
2 0-1 8.46% 11.81
3 1-2 8.41% 11.89
4 1-0 8.34% 11.98
5 2-1 8.29% 12.06
6 0-2 6.01% 16.64
7 0-0 5.96% 16.78
8 2-2 5.89% 16.98
9 2-0 5.84% 17.12
10 1-3 3.98% 25.11
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.96%
16.78
8.46%
11.81
6.01%
16.64
2.84%
35.16
1.01%
99.03
0.29%
348.68
1
8.34%
11.98
11.85%
8.44
8.41%
11.89
3.98%
25.11
1.41%
70.74
0.4%
249.07
2
5.84%
17.12
8.29%
12.06
5.89%
16.98
2.79%
35.87
0.99%
101.05
0.28%
355.87
3
2.73%
36.68
3.87%
25.83
2.75%
36.39
1.3%
76.87
0.46%
216.54
0.13%
762.2
4
0.95%
104.81
1.35%
73.81
0.96%
103.96
0.46%
219.64
0.16%
618.81
0.05%
2178.65
5
0.27%
374.39
0.38%
263.64
0.27%
371.33
0.13%
784.31
0.05%
2207.51
0.01%
7751.94
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.66% · Fair: 151.13
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.96% 16.78
1 16.81% 5.95
2 23.70% 4.22
3 22.28% 4.49
4 15.71% 6.37
5+ 15.54% 6.43
Over 2.5 53.53% Under 2.5 46.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.62%
Draw 26.69%
Away Win 37.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.53%
Under 2.5 46.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.13%
No 42.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.26% 15.99 10.81% 9.25 82.93% 1.21
-1.5 17.07% 5.86 — 82.93% 1.21
-1.0 17.07% 5.86 19.89% 5.03 63.04% 1.59
-0.5 36.96% 2.71 — 63.04% 1.59
0 (PK) 36.96% 2.71 25.18% 3.97 37.86% 2.64
+0.5 62.14% 1.61 — 37.86% 2.64
+1.0 62.14% 1.61 20.18% 4.96 17.69% 5.65
+1.5 82.31% 1.21 — 17.69% 5.65
+2.0 82.31% 1.21 11.12% 8.99 6.56% 15.23

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.