Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.89%
Fair Odds 3.04
Draw
27.22%
Fair Odds 3.67
Away Win
39.89%
Fair Odds 2.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.19% Fair Odds 8.2

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.04 —
Draw 3.67 —
Away Win 2.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.19% 8.2
2 0-1 9.45% 10.58
3 1-2 8.65% 11.56
4 1-0 8.58% 11.65
5 2-1 7.86% 12.72
6 0-2 6.71% 14.91
7 0-0 6.65% 15.03
8 2-2 5.58% 17.92
9 2-0 5.54% 18.06
10 1-3 4.1% 24.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.65%
15.03
9.45%
10.58
6.71%
14.91
3.18%
31.49
1.13%
88.72
0.32%
312.4
1
8.58%
11.65
12.19%
8.2
8.65%
11.56
4.1%
24.41
1.45%
68.77
0.41%
242.13
2
5.54%
18.06
7.86%
12.72
5.58%
17.92
2.64%
37.85
0.94%
106.62
0.27%
375.38
3
2.38%
42.01
3.38%
29.58
2.4%
41.66
1.14%
88.03
0.4%
247.95
0.11%
873.36
4
0.77%
130.26
1.09%
91.73
0.77%
129.2
0.37%
272.93
0.13%
768.64
0.04%
2710.03
5
0.2%
504.8
0.28%
355.49
0.2%
500.75
0.09%
1058.2
0.03%
2976.19
0.01%
10526.32
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.56% · Fair: 179.63
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.47% 27.53%
1.5 36.96% 63.04%
2.5 14.06% 85.94%
3.5 4.21% 95.79%
4.5 1.03% 98.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.65% 15.03
1 18.03% 5.55
2 24.43% 4.09
3 22.07% 4.53
4 14.95% 6.69
5+ 13.86% 7.22
Over 2.5 50.88% Under 2.5 49.12%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.89%
Draw 27.22%
Away Win 39.89%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.88%
Under 2.5 49.12%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.96%
No 45.04%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.12% 19.52 9.79% 10.21 85.09% 1.18
-1.5 14.91% 6.7 — 85.09% 1.18
-1.0 14.91% 6.7 19.25% 5.2 65.84% 1.52
-0.5 34.16% 2.93 — 65.84% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.16% 2.93 25.7% 3.89 40.14% 2.49
+0.5 59.86% 1.67 — 40.14% 2.49
+1.0 59.86% 1.67 21.19% 4.72 18.95% 5.28
+1.5 81.05% 1.23 — 18.95% 5.28
+2.0 81.05% 1.23 11.87% 8.43 7.09% 14.11

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.