Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.13%
Fair Odds 3.32
Draw
27.69%
Fair Odds 3.61
Away Win
42.18%
Fair Odds 2.37
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.45% Fair Odds 8.04

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.32 —
Draw 3.61 —
Away Win 2.37 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.45% 8.04
2 0-1 10.55% 9.48
3 1-2 8.84% 11.32
4 1-0 8.76% 11.41
5 0-2 7.49% 13.35
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 2-1 7.34% 13.62
8 2-2 5.21% 19.18
9 2-0 5.17% 19.34
10 1-3 4.18% 23.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
10.55%
9.48
7.49%
13.35
3.54%
28.21
1.26%
79.47
0.36%
279.8
1
8.76%
11.41
12.45%
8.04
8.84%
11.32
4.18%
23.91
1.48%
67.35
0.42%
237.14
2
5.17%
19.34
7.34%
13.62
5.21%
19.18
2.47%
40.53
0.88%
114.16
0.25%
401.93
3
2.03%
49.17
2.89%
34.62
2.05%
48.77
0.97%
103.03
0.34%
290.19
0.1%
1021.45
4
0.6%
166.67
0.85%
117.37
0.6%
165.32
0.29%
349.28
0.1%
984.25
0.03%
3460.21
5
0.14%
706.21
0.2%
497.27
0.14%
700.28
0.07%
1479.29
0.02%
4166.67
0.01%
14705.88
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.48% · Fair: 208.33
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.13%
Draw 27.69%
Away Win 42.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.53%
No 47.47%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.1% 24.38 8.74% 11.45 87.16% 1.15
-1.5 12.84% 7.79 — 87.16% 1.15
-1.0 12.84% 7.79 18.47% 5.41 68.69% 1.46
-0.5 31.31% 3.19 — 68.69% 1.46
0 (PK) 31.31% 3.19 26.17% 3.82 42.53% 2.35
+0.5 57.47% 1.74 — 42.53% 2.35
+1.0 57.47% 1.74 22.23% 4.5 20.3% 4.93
+1.5 79.7% 1.25 — 20.3% 4.93
+2.0 79.7% 1.25 12.65% 7.9 7.65% 13.07

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.