Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.24%
Fair Odds 2.21
Draw
24.7%
Fair Odds 4.05
Away Win
30.06%
Fair Odds 3.33
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.47% Fair Odds 9.55

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.21 —
Draw 4.05 —
Away Win 3.33 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.47% 9.55
2 2-1 9.16% 10.92
3 1-0 7.42% 13.47
4 1-2 7.38% 13.55
5 2-0 6.5% 15.39
6 2-2 6.46% 15.49
7 0-1 5.98% 16.72
8 3-1 5.34% 18.72
9 0-0 4.24% 23.57
10 0-2 4.22% 23.71
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.24%
23.57
5.98%
16.72
4.22%
23.71
1.98%
50.45
0.7%
143.12
0.2%
507.61
1
7.42%
13.47
10.47%
9.55
7.38%
13.55
3.47%
28.83
1.22%
81.79
0.34%
290.02
2
6.5%
15.39
9.16%
10.92
6.46%
15.49
3.04%
32.95
1.07%
93.47
0.3%
331.46
3
3.79%
26.39
5.34%
18.72
3.77%
26.55
1.77%
56.48
0.62%
160.23
0.18%
568.18
4
1.66%
60.31
2.34%
42.78
1.65%
60.68
0.77%
129.1
0.27%
366.3
0.08%
1298.7
5
0.58%
172.32
0.82%
122.22
0.58%
173.37
0.27%
368.87
0.1%
1046.03
0.03%
3717.47
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.24% · Fair: 80.55
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.62% 17.38%
1.5 52.21% 47.79%
2.5 25.6% 74.4%
3.5 10.08% 89.92%
4.5 3.29% 96.71%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.24% 23.57
1 13.41% 7.46
2 21.18% 4.72
3 22.31% 4.48
4 17.63% 5.67
5+ 21.23% 4.71
Over 2.5 61.17% Under 2.5 38.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.24%
Draw 24.70%
Away Win 30.06%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 61.17%
Under 2.5 38.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.45%
No 37.55%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.63% 9.4 13.79% 7.25 75.58% 1.32
-1.5 24.42% 4.09 — 75.58% 1.32
-1.0 24.42% 4.09 21.23% 4.71 54.35% 1.84
-0.5 45.65% 2.19 — 54.35% 1.84
0 (PK) 45.65% 2.19 23.24% 4.3 31.11% 3.21
+0.5 68.89% 1.45 — 31.11% 3.21
+1.0 68.89% 1.45 17.11% 5.85 14.0% 7.14
+1.5 86.0% 1.16 — 14.0% 7.14
+2.0 86.0% 1.16 8.95% 11.17 5.05% 19.8

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.