Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.33%
Fair Odds 2.26
Draw
24.95%
Fair Odds 4.01
Away Win
30.72%
Fair Odds 3.26
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.65% Fair Odds 9.39

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.26 —
Draw 4.01 —
Away Win 3.26 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.65% 9.39
2 2-1 9.1% 10.99
3 1-0 7.55% 13.24
4 1-2 7.51% 13.32
5 2-0 6.46% 15.49
6 2-2 6.42% 15.58
7 0-1 6.23% 16.06
8 3-1 5.19% 19.27
9 0-0 4.42% 22.65
10 0-2 4.39% 22.78
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.42%
22.65
6.23%
16.06
4.39%
22.78
2.06%
48.47
0.73%
137.51
0.21%
487.57
1
7.55%
13.24
10.65%
9.39
7.51%
13.32
3.53%
28.35
1.24%
80.41
0.35%
285.14
2
6.46%
15.49
9.1%
10.99
6.42%
15.58
3.02%
33.15
1.06%
94.06
0.3%
333.56
3
3.68%
27.17
5.19%
19.27
3.66%
27.34
1.72%
58.16
0.61%
165.02
0.17%
585.14
4
1.57%
63.56
2.22%
45.08
1.56%
63.95
0.73%
136.05
0.26%
385.95
0.07%
1367.99
5
0.54%
185.87
0.76%
131.82
0.53%
186.99
0.25%
397.77
0.09%
1128.67
0.03%
4000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.15% · Fair: 86.96
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.91% 18.09%
1.5 50.99% 49.01%
2.5 24.54% 75.46%
3.5 9.47% 90.53%
4.5 3.03% 96.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.42% 22.65
1 13.78% 7.26
2 21.49% 4.65
3 22.35% 4.47
4 17.43% 5.74
5+ 20.53% 4.87
Over 2.5 60.31% Under 2.5 39.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.33%
Draw 24.95%
Away Win 30.72%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.31%
Under 2.5 39.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.91%
No 38.09%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.09% 9.91 13.49% 7.41 76.43% 1.31
-1.5 23.57% 4.24 — 76.43% 1.31
-1.0 23.57% 4.24 21.14% 4.73 55.28% 1.81
-0.5 44.72% 2.24 — 55.28% 1.81
0 (PK) 44.72% 2.24 23.49% 4.26 31.8% 3.14
+0.5 68.2% 1.47 — 31.8% 3.14
+1.0 68.2% 1.47 17.43% 5.74 14.36% 6.96
+1.5 85.64% 1.17 — 14.36% 6.96
+2.0 85.64% 1.17 9.17% 10.91 5.19% 19.25

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.