Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.26%
Fair Odds 2.37
Draw
25.5%
Fair Odds 3.92
Away Win
32.24%
Fair Odds 3.1
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.04% Fair Odds 9.06

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.37 —
Draw 3.92 —
Away Win 3.1 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.04% 9.06
2 2-1 8.94% 11.19
3 1-0 7.83% 12.78
4 1-2 7.78% 12.85
5 0-1 6.81% 14.68
6 2-0 6.34% 15.77
7 2-2 6.3% 15.87
8 0-0 4.83% 20.7
9 3-1 4.83% 20.72
10 0-2 4.8% 20.82
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.83%
20.7
6.81%
14.68
4.8%
20.82
2.26%
44.3
0.8%
125.68
0.22%
445.63
1
7.83%
12.78
11.04%
9.06
7.78%
12.85
3.66%
27.35
1.29%
77.58
0.36%
275.1
2
6.34%
15.77
8.94%
11.19
6.3%
15.87
2.96%
33.76
1.04%
95.78
0.29%
339.67
3
3.42%
29.21
4.83%
20.72
3.4%
29.38
1.6%
62.52
0.56%
177.37
0.16%
628.93
4
1.39%
72.12
1.96%
51.15
1.38%
72.55
0.65%
154.37
0.23%
437.83
0.06%
1552.8
5
0.45%
222.62
0.63%
157.88
0.45%
223.91
0.21%
476.42
0.07%
1351.35
0.02%
4784.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.97% · Fair: 103.19
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.83% 20.70
1 14.64% 6.83
2 22.18% 4.51
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.97% 5.89
5+ 18.98% 5.27
Over 2.5 58.35% Under 2.5 41.65%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.26%
Draw 25.50%
Away Win 32.24%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.35%
Under 2.5 41.65%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.63%
No 39.37%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.91% 11.23 12.78% 7.83 78.32% 1.28
-1.5 21.68% 4.61 — 78.32% 1.28
-1.0 21.68% 4.61 20.9% 4.79 57.42% 1.74
-0.5 42.58% 2.35 — 57.42% 1.74
0 (PK) 42.58% 2.35 24.02% 4.16 33.4% 2.99
+0.5 66.6% 1.5 — 33.4% 2.99
+1.0 66.6% 1.5 18.19% 5.5 15.21% 6.57
+1.5 84.79% 1.18 — 15.21% 6.57
+2.0 84.79% 1.18 9.68% 10.33 5.53% 18.07

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.