Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.19%
Fair Odds 2.55
Draw
26.25%
Fair Odds 3.81
Away Win
34.55%
Fair Odds 2.89
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.56% Fair Odds 8.65

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.55 —
Draw 3.81 —
Away Win 2.89 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.56% 8.65
2 2-1 8.61% 11.61
3 1-0 8.2% 12.2
4 1-2 8.15% 12.27
5 0-1 7.76% 12.89
6 2-0 6.11% 16.37
7 2-2 6.07% 16.47
8 0-0 5.5% 18.17
9 0-2 5.47% 18.28
10 3-1 4.28% 23.38
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.5%
18.17
7.76%
12.89
5.47%
18.28
2.57%
38.9
0.91%
110.35
0.26%
391.39
1
8.2%
12.2
11.56%
8.65
8.15%
12.27
3.83%
26.11
1.35%
74.06
0.38%
262.61
2
6.11%
16.37
8.61%
11.61
6.07%
16.47
2.85%
35.04
1.01%
99.41
0.28%
352.49
3
3.03%
32.96
4.28%
23.38
3.02%
33.16
1.42%
70.56
0.5%
200.16
0.14%
709.72
4
1.13%
88.5
1.59%
62.76
1.12%
89.02
0.53%
189.43
0.19%
537.35
0.05%
1904.76
5
0.34%
297.0
0.47%
210.61
0.33%
298.78
0.16%
635.73
0.06%
1801.8
0.02%
6410.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.76% · Fair: 131.34
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.50% 18.17
1 15.96% 6.27
2 23.14% 4.32
3 22.37% 4.47
4 16.22% 6.17
5+ 16.82% 5.94
Over 2.5 55.4% Under 2.5 44.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.19%
Draw 26.25%
Away Win 34.55%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.4%
Under 2.5 44.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.55%
No 41.45%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.31% 13.67 11.68% 8.56 81.0% 1.23
-1.5 19.0% 5.26 — 81.0% 1.23
-1.0 19.0% 5.26 20.41% 4.9 60.59% 1.65
-0.5 39.41% 2.54 — 60.59% 1.65
0 (PK) 39.41% 2.54 24.75% 4.04 35.84% 2.79
+0.5 64.16% 1.56 — 35.84% 2.79
+1.0 64.16% 1.56 19.32% 5.18 16.52% 6.05
+1.5 83.48% 1.2 — 16.52% 6.05
+2.0 83.48% 1.2 10.46% 9.56 6.06% 16.5

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.