Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.51%
Fair Odds 2.67
Draw
26.63%
Fair Odds 3.75
Away Win
35.86%
Fair Odds 2.79
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.82% Fair Odds 8.46

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.67 —
Draw 3.75 —
Away Win 2.79 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.82% 8.46
2 2-1 8.39% 11.92
3 1-0 8.38% 11.93
4 1-2 8.33% 12.0
5 0-1 8.32% 12.02
6 2-0 5.95% 16.81
7 2-2 5.91% 16.91
8 0-0 5.9% 16.95
9 0-2 5.87% 17.05
10 3-1 3.97% 25.18
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.9%
16.95
8.32%
12.02
5.87%
17.05
2.76%
36.27
0.97%
102.89
0.27%
364.83
1
8.38%
11.93
11.82%
8.46
8.33%
12.0
3.92%
25.54
1.38%
72.46
0.39%
256.94
2
5.95%
16.81
8.39%
11.92
5.91%
16.91
2.78%
35.98
0.98%
102.06
0.28%
361.93
3
2.82%
35.51
3.97%
25.18
2.8%
35.72
1.32%
76.01
0.46%
215.61
0.13%
764.53
4
1.0%
100.03
1.41%
70.94
0.99%
100.62
0.47%
214.09
0.16%
607.53
0.05%
2155.17
5
0.28%
352.24
0.4%
249.81
0.28%
354.36
0.13%
753.58
0.05%
2136.75
0.01%
7575.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.67% · Fair: 148.59
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.90% 16.95
1 16.70% 5.99
2 23.63% 4.23
3 22.29% 4.49
4 15.77% 6.34
5+ 15.70% 6.37
Over 2.5 53.77% Under 2.5 46.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.51%
Draw 26.63%
Away Win 35.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.77%
Under 2.5 46.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.32%
No 42.68%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.52% 15.34 11.06% 9.04 82.42% 1.21
-1.5 17.58% 5.69 — 82.42% 1.21
-1.0 17.58% 5.69 20.09% 4.98 62.34% 1.6
-0.5 37.66% 2.66 — 62.34% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.66% 2.66 25.13% 3.98 37.21% 2.69
+0.5 62.79% 1.59 — 37.21% 2.69
+1.0 62.79% 1.59 19.94% 5.01 17.27% 5.79
+1.5 82.73% 1.21 — 17.27% 5.79
+2.0 82.73% 1.21 10.9% 9.17 6.36% 15.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.