Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.31%
Fair Odds 2.83
Draw
26.84%
Fair Odds 3.73
Away Win
37.85%
Fair Odds 2.64
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.95% Fair Odds 8.37

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.83 —
Draw 3.73 —
Away Win 2.64 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.95% 8.37
2 0-1 8.66% 11.55
3 1-0 8.48% 11.8
4 1-2 8.43% 11.87
5 2-1 8.25% 12.13
6 0-0 6.14% 16.28
7 0-2 6.11% 16.38
8 2-0 5.85% 17.1
9 2-2 5.81% 17.2
10 1-3 3.96% 25.25
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.14%
16.28
8.66%
11.55
6.11%
16.38
2.87%
34.85
1.01%
98.86
0.29%
350.51
1
8.48%
11.8
11.95%
8.37
8.43%
11.87
3.96%
25.25
1.4%
71.64
0.39%
254.0
2
5.85%
17.1
8.25%
12.13
5.81%
17.2
2.73%
36.6
0.96%
103.82
0.27%
368.19
3
2.69%
37.17
3.79%
26.36
2.67%
37.39
1.26%
79.56
0.44%
225.68
0.12%
800.64
4
0.93%
107.74
1.31%
76.41
0.92%
108.39
0.43%
230.63
0.15%
654.02
0.04%
2320.19
5
0.26%
390.32
0.36%
276.85
0.25%
392.77
0.12%
835.42
0.04%
2369.67
0.01%
8403.36
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.63% · Fair: 158.98
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.14% 16.28
1 17.14% 5.84
2 23.91% 4.18
3 22.23% 4.50
4 15.51% 6.45
5+ 15.08% 6.63
Over 2.5 52.82% Under 2.5 47.18%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.31%
Draw 26.84%
Away Win 37.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.82%
Under 2.5 47.18%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.57%
No 43.43%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.08% 16.44 10.69% 9.35 83.22% 1.2
-1.5 16.78% 5.96 — 83.22% 1.2
-1.0 16.78% 5.96 19.88% 5.03 63.35% 1.58
-0.5 36.65% 2.73 — 63.35% 1.58
0 (PK) 36.65% 2.73 25.33% 3.95 38.02% 2.63
+0.5 61.98% 1.61 — 38.02% 2.63
+1.0 61.98% 1.61 20.31% 4.92 17.71% 5.65
+1.5 82.29% 1.22 — 17.71% 5.65
+2.0 82.29% 1.22 11.16% 8.96 6.54% 15.28

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.