Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.22%
Fair Odds 2.21
Draw
24.79%
Fair Odds 4.03
Away Win
30.0%
Fair Odds 3.33
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.54% Fair Odds 9.48

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.21 —
Draw 4.03 —
Away Win 3.33 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.54% 9.48
2 2-1 9.17% 10.9
3 1-0 7.53% 13.28
4 1-2 7.38% 13.55
5 2-0 6.55% 15.26
6 2-2 6.42% 15.57
7 0-1 6.06% 16.5
8 3-1 5.32% 18.8
9 0-0 4.33% 23.1
10 0-2 4.24% 23.58
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.33%
23.1
6.06%
16.5
4.24%
23.58
1.98%
50.52
0.69%
144.34
0.19%
515.46
1
7.53%
13.28
10.54%
9.48
7.38%
13.55
3.44%
29.03
1.21%
82.95
0.34%
296.3
2
6.55%
15.26
9.17%
10.9
6.42%
15.57
3.0%
33.37
1.05%
95.35
0.29%
340.48
3
3.8%
26.31
5.32%
18.8
3.72%
26.85
1.74%
57.54
0.61%
164.39
0.17%
587.2
4
1.65%
60.49
2.31%
43.21
1.62%
61.73
0.76%
132.28
0.26%
377.93
0.07%
1349.53
5
0.58%
173.82
0.81%
124.16
0.56%
177.37
0.26%
380.08
0.09%
1085.78
0.03%
3875.97
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.21% · Fair: 82.87
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.45% 17.55%
1.5 51.91% 48.09%
2.5 25.34% 74.66%
3.5 9.93% 90.07%
4.5 3.22% 96.78%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.33% 23.10
1 13.59% 7.36
2 21.34% 4.69
3 22.33% 4.48
4 17.53% 5.70
5+ 20.88% 4.79
Over 2.5 60.74% Under 2.5 39.26%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.22%
Draw 24.79%
Away Win 30.00%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.74%
Under 2.5 39.26%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.12%
No 37.88%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.56% 9.47 13.78% 7.25 75.65% 1.32
-1.5 24.35% 4.11 — 75.65% 1.32
-1.0 24.35% 4.11 21.28% 4.7 54.37% 1.84
-0.5 45.63% 2.19 — 54.37% 1.84
0 (PK) 45.63% 2.19 23.32% 4.29 31.04% 3.22
+0.5 68.95% 1.45 — 31.04% 3.22
+1.0 68.95% 1.45 17.13% 5.84 13.92% 7.18
+1.5 86.08% 1.16 — 13.92% 7.18
+2.0 86.08% 1.16 8.92% 11.21 5.0% 20.02

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.