Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.58%
Fair Odds 2.46
Draw
26.01%
Fair Odds 3.84
Away Win
33.41%
Fair Odds 2.99
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.4% Fair Odds 8.77

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.46 —
Draw 3.84 —
Away Win 2.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.4% 8.77
2 2-1 8.78% 11.39
3 1-0 8.14% 12.28
4 1-2 7.98% 12.53
5 0-1 7.4% 13.51
6 2-0 6.27% 15.95
7 2-2 6.14% 16.28
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 0-2 5.18% 19.3
10 3-1 4.51% 22.2
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
7.4%
13.51
5.18%
19.3
2.42%
41.36
0.85%
118.18
0.24%
422.12
1
8.14%
12.28
11.4%
8.77
7.98%
12.53
3.72%
26.86
1.3%
76.73
0.36%
274.05
2
6.27%
15.95
8.78%
11.39
6.14%
16.28
2.87%
34.88
1.0%
99.66
0.28%
355.87
3
3.22%
31.08
4.51%
22.2
3.15%
31.71
1.47%
67.95
0.52%
194.14
0.14%
693.48
4
1.24%
80.72
1.73%
57.65
1.21%
82.36
0.57%
176.49
0.2%
504.29
0.06%
1801.8
5
0.38%
262.05
0.53%
187.2
0.37%
267.38
0.17%
573.07
0.06%
1636.66
0.02%
5847.95
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.82% · Fair: 121.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.56% 21.44%
1.5 45.55% 54.45%
2.5 20.13% 79.87%
3.5 7.08% 92.92%
4.5 2.05% 97.95%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.58%
Draw 26.01%
Away Win 33.41%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.19%
No 40.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.96% 12.56 12.18% 8.21 79.86% 1.25
-1.5 20.14% 4.96 — 79.86% 1.25
-1.0 20.14% 4.96 20.7% 4.83 59.15% 1.69
-0.5 40.85% 2.45 — 59.15% 1.69
0 (PK) 40.85% 2.45 24.52% 4.08 34.64% 2.89
+0.5 65.36% 1.53 — 34.64% 2.89
+1.0 65.36% 1.53 18.82% 5.31 15.82% 6.32
+1.5 84.18% 1.19 — 15.82% 6.32
+2.0 84.18% 1.19 10.07% 9.93 5.75% 17.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.