Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
Premium FHn2uDc1 betting site ang stake: puwedeng gamitin ng mga bagong user ang promo code FHn2uDc1 FHn2uDc1. Mag-register
INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.5%
Fair Odds
2.82
Draw
26.9%
Fair Odds
3.72
Away Win
37.6%
Fair Odds
2.66
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.99%
Fair Odds 8.34
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 2.82 | — | |
| Draw | 3.72 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.66 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 11.99% | 8.34 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 8.69% | 11.51 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 8.56% | 11.68 |
| 4 | 1-2 | 8.39% | 11.92 |
| 5 | 2-1 | 8.27% | 12.09 |
| 6 | 0-0 | 6.2% | 16.12 |
| 7 | 0-2 | 6.08% | 16.45 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 5.91% | 16.93 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 5.79% | 17.27 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.92% | 25.54 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
6.2%
16.12
|
8.69%
11.51
|
6.08%
16.45
|
2.84%
35.25
|
0.99%
100.7
|
0.28%
359.71
|
| 1 |
8.56%
11.68
|
11.99%
8.34
|
8.39%
11.92
|
3.92%
25.54
|
1.37%
72.97
|
0.38%
260.62
|
| 2 |
5.91%
16.93
|
8.27%
12.09
|
5.79%
17.27
|
2.7%
37.02
|
0.95%
105.75
|
0.26%
377.64
|
| 3 |
2.72%
36.8
|
3.8%
26.29
|
2.66%
37.55
|
1.24%
80.47
|
0.43%
229.89
|
0.12%
821.02
|
| 4 |
0.94%
106.67
|
1.31%
76.19
|
0.92%
108.85
|
0.43%
233.26
|
0.15%
666.22
|
0.04%
2380.95
|
| 5 |
0.26%
386.55
|
0.36%
276.09
|
0.25%
394.32
|
0.12%
845.31
|
0.04%
2415.46
|
0.01%
8620.69
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
0.62%
·
Fair:
161.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74.84% | 25.16% |
| 1.5 | 40.12% | 59.88% |
| 2.5 | 16.17% | 83.83% |
| 3.5 | 5.15% | 94.85% |
| 4.5 | 1.35% | 98.65% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 75.34% | 24.66% |
| 1.5 | 40.82% | 59.18% |
| 2.5 | 16.65% | 83.35% |
| 3.5 | 5.37% | 94.63% |
| 4.5 | 1.43% | 98.57% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.20% | 16.12 |
| 1 | 17.25% | 5.80 |
| 2 | 23.97% | 4.17 |
| 3 | 22.21% | 4.50 |
| 4 | 15.44% | 6.48 |
| 5+ | 14.92% | 6.70 |
|
Over 2.5 52.58%
Under 2.5 47.42%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
35.50%
Draw
26.90%
Away Win
37.60%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.58%
Under 2.5
47.42%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
56.39%
No
43.61%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 6.13% 16.32 | 10.76% 9.29 | 83.11% 1.2 |
| -1.5 | 16.89% 5.92 | — | 83.11% 1.2 |
| -1.0 | 16.89% 5.92 | 19.97% 5.01 | 63.15% 1.58 |
| -0.5 | 36.85% 2.71 | — | 63.15% 1.58 |
| 0 (PK) | 36.85% 2.71 | 25.38% 3.94 | 37.76% 2.65 |
| +0.5 | 62.24% 1.61 | — | 37.76% 2.65 |
| +1.0 | 62.24% 1.61 | 20.26% 4.94 | 17.51% 5.71 |
| +1.5 | 82.49% 1.21 | — | 17.51% 5.71 |
| +2.0 | 82.49% 1.21 | 11.07% 9.03 | 6.43% 15.54 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
