Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.76%
Fair Odds 3.05
Draw
27.45%
Fair Odds 3.64
Away Win
39.8%
Fair Odds 2.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.31% Fair Odds 8.12

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.05 —
Draw 3.64 —
Away Win 2.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.31% 8.12
2 0-1 9.7% 10.31
3 1-0 8.79% 11.37
4 1-2 8.62% 11.6
5 2-1 7.82% 12.79
6 0-0 6.93% 14.44
7 0-2 6.79% 14.73
8 2-0 5.58% 17.91
9 2-2 5.47% 18.27
10 1-3 4.02% 24.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.93%
14.44
9.7%
10.31
6.79%
14.73
3.17%
31.57
1.11%
90.21
0.31%
322.16
1
8.79%
11.37
12.31%
8.12
8.62%
11.6
4.02%
24.86
1.41%
71.03
0.39%
253.68
2
5.58%
17.91
7.82%
12.79
5.47%
18.27
2.55%
39.15
0.89%
111.87
0.25%
399.52
3
2.36%
42.3
3.31%
30.21
2.32%
43.16
1.08%
92.48
0.38%
264.27
0.11%
943.4
4
0.75%
133.21
1.05%
95.16
0.74%
135.94
0.34%
291.29
0.12%
831.95
0.03%
2976.19
5
0.19%
524.38
0.27%
374.67
0.19%
535.05
0.09%
1146.79
0.03%
3278.69
0.01%
11764.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.52% · Fair: 192.98
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.93% 14.44
1 18.49% 5.41
2 24.68% 4.05
3 21.97% 4.55
4 14.66% 6.82
5+ 13.27% 7.54
Over 2.5 49.9% Under 2.5 50.1%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.76%
Draw 27.45%
Away Win 39.80%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.9%
Under 2.5 50.1%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.18%
No 45.82%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.0% 20.0 9.72% 10.28 85.28% 1.17
-1.5 14.72% 6.79 — 85.28% 1.17
-1.0 14.72% 6.79 19.31% 5.18 65.97% 1.52
-0.5 34.03% 2.94 — 65.97% 1.52
0 (PK) 34.03% 2.94 25.92% 3.86 40.05% 2.5
+0.5 59.95% 1.67 — 40.05% 2.5
+1.0 59.95% 1.67 21.28% 4.7 18.76% 5.33
+1.5 81.24% 1.23 — 18.76% 5.33
+2.0 81.24% 1.23 11.82% 8.46 6.95% 14.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.