Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
30.99%
Fair Odds 3.23
Draw
27.77%
Fair Odds 3.6
Away Win
41.25%
Fair Odds 2.42
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.48% Fair Odds 8.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.23 —
Draw 3.6 —
Away Win 2.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.48% 8.01
2 0-1 10.4% 9.62
3 1-0 8.91% 11.22
4 1-2 8.73% 11.45
5 2-1 7.49% 13.36
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 7.28% 13.74
8 2-0 5.35% 18.7
9 2-2 5.24% 19.08
10 1-3 4.08% 24.53
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
10.4%
9.62
7.28%
13.74
3.4%
29.44
1.19%
84.11
0.33%
300.39
1
8.91%
11.22
12.48%
8.01
8.73%
11.45
4.08%
24.53
1.43%
70.1
0.4%
250.31
2
5.35%
18.7
7.49%
13.36
5.24%
19.08
2.45%
40.89
0.86%
116.82
0.24%
417.19
3
2.14%
46.75
2.99%
33.39
2.1%
47.7
0.98%
102.22
0.34%
292.06
0.1%
1042.75
4
0.64%
155.84
0.9%
111.31
0.63%
159.01
0.29%
340.72
0.1%
973.71
0.03%
3472.22
5
0.15%
649.35
0.22%
463.82
0.15%
662.69
0.07%
1420.45
0.02%
4048.58
0.01%
14492.75
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.47% · Fair: 212.99
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.88% 30.12%
1.5 33.74% 66.26%
2.5 12.05% 87.95%
3.5 3.38% 96.62%
4.5 0.77% 99.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 30.99%
Draw 27.77%
Away Win 41.25%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.65%
No 47.35%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.34% 23.03 9.05% 11.05 86.61% 1.15
-1.5 13.39% 7.47 — 86.61% 1.15
-1.0 13.39% 7.47 18.82% 5.31 67.79% 1.48
-0.5 32.21% 3.11 — 67.79% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.21% 3.11 26.23% 3.81 41.56% 2.41
+0.5 58.44% 1.71 — 41.56% 2.41
+1.0 58.44% 1.71 21.95% 4.56 19.61% 5.1
+1.5 80.39% 1.24 — 19.61% 5.1
+2.0 80.39% 1.24 12.31% 8.12 7.3% 13.71

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.