Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.91%
Fair Odds 3.58
Draw
28.25%
Fair Odds 3.54
Away Win
43.84%
Fair Odds 2.28
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.66% Fair Odds 7.9

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.58 —
Draw 3.54 —
Away Win 2.28 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.66% 7.9
2 0-1 11.72% 8.53
3 1-0 9.04% 11.06
4 1-2 8.86% 11.28
5 0-0 8.37% 11.94
6 0-2 8.21% 12.19
7 2-1 6.84% 14.63
8 2-0 4.88% 20.48
9 2-2 4.79% 20.89
10 1-3 4.14% 24.18
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.37%
11.94
11.72%
8.53
8.21%
12.19
3.83%
26.11
1.34%
74.6
0.38%
266.45
1
9.04%
11.06
12.66%
7.9
8.86%
11.28
4.14%
24.18
1.45%
69.08
0.41%
246.67
2
4.88%
20.48
6.84%
14.63
4.79%
20.89
2.23%
44.77
0.78%
127.91
0.22%
456.83
3
1.76%
56.88
2.46%
40.63
1.72%
58.04
0.8%
124.36
0.28%
355.37
0.08%
1269.04
4
0.47%
210.66
0.66%
150.47
0.47%
214.96
0.22%
460.62
0.08%
1315.79
0.02%
4694.84
5
0.1%
975.61
0.14%
696.38
0.1%
995.02
0.05%
2132.2
0.02%
6097.56
0.0%
21739.13
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.41% · Fair: 245.22
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.37% 11.94
1 20.77% 4.82
2 25.75% 3.88
3 21.29% 4.70
4 13.20% 7.58
5+ 10.62% 9.42
Over 2.5 45.1% Under 2.5 54.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.91%
Draw 28.25%
Away Win 43.84%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.1%
Under 2.5 54.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.76%
No 50.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.33% 30.05 7.86% 12.72 88.81% 1.13
-1.5 11.19% 8.94 — 88.81% 1.13
-1.0 11.19% 8.94 17.84% 5.61 70.97% 1.41
-0.5 29.03% 3.44 — 70.97% 1.41
0 (PK) 29.03% 3.44 26.71% 3.74 44.26% 2.26
+0.5 55.74% 1.79 — 44.26% 2.26
+1.0 55.74% 1.79 23.12% 4.32 21.14% 4.73
+1.5 78.86% 1.27 — 21.14% 4.73
+2.0 78.86% 1.27 13.21% 7.57 7.93% 12.61

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.