Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
54.22%
Fair Odds 1.84
Draw
22.04%
Fair Odds 4.54
Away Win
23.74%
Fair Odds 4.21
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.32% Fair Odds 10.73

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.84 —
Draw 4.54 —
Away Win 4.21 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.32% 10.73
2 1-1 8.67% 11.53
3 2-0 6.71% 14.91
4 3-1 6.68% 14.97
5 2-2 6.48% 15.44
6 1-0 6.24% 16.03
7 1-2 6.03% 16.59
8 3-0 4.81% 20.81
9 3-2 4.64% 21.54
10 0-1 4.03% 24.8
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.9%
34.47
4.03%
24.8
2.8%
35.68
1.3%
77.0
0.45%
221.58
0.13%
796.81
1
6.24%
16.03
8.67%
11.53
6.03%
16.59
2.79%
35.82
0.97%
103.06
0.27%
370.78
2
6.71%
14.91
9.32%
10.73
6.48%
15.44
3.0%
33.32
1.04%
95.88
0.29%
344.83
3
4.81%
20.81
6.68%
14.97
4.64%
21.54
2.15%
46.49
0.75%
133.78
0.21%
481.23
4
2.58%
38.71
3.59%
27.85
2.5%
40.07
1.16%
86.49
0.4%
248.88
0.11%
895.26
5
1.11%
90.03
1.54%
64.77
1.07%
93.2
0.5%
201.13
0.17%
578.7
0.05%
2083.33
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.56% · Fair: 39.04
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.35% 11.65%
1.5 63.31% 36.69%
2.5 36.38% 63.61%
3.5 17.09% 82.91%
4.5 6.72% 93.28%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.90% 34.47
1 10.27% 9.74
2 18.18% 5.50
3 21.45% 4.66
4 18.98% 5.27
5+ 28.21% 3.54
Over 2.5 68.65% Under 2.5 31.35%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 54.22%
Draw 22.04%
Away Win 23.74%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 68.65%
Under 2.5 31.35%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 66.34%
No 33.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 16.87% 5.93 16.45% 6.08 66.68% 1.5
-1.5 33.32% 3.0 — 66.68% 1.5
-1.0 33.32% 3.0 21.55% 4.64 45.13% 2.22
-0.5 54.87% 1.82 — 45.13% 2.22
0 (PK) 54.87% 1.82 20.66% 4.84 24.47% 4.09
+0.5 75.52% 1.32 — 24.47% 4.09
+1.0 75.52% 1.32 13.93% 7.18 10.54% 9.49
+1.5 89.46% 1.12 — 10.54% 9.49
+2.0 89.46% 1.12 6.87% 14.55 3.67% 27.26

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.