Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.19%
Fair Odds 2.21
Draw
24.87%
Fair Odds 4.02
Away Win
29.93%
Fair Odds 3.34
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.62% Fair Odds 9.42

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.21 —
Draw 4.02 —
Away Win 3.34 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.62% 9.42
2 2-1 9.19% 10.89
3 1-0 7.64% 13.09
4 1-2 7.38% 13.55
5 2-0 6.61% 15.13
6 2-2 6.38% 15.67
7 0-1 6.14% 16.29
8 3-1 5.3% 18.88
9 0-0 4.42% 22.65
10 0-2 4.27% 23.44
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.42%
22.65
6.14%
16.29
4.27%
23.44
1.98%
50.59
0.69%
145.6
0.19%
523.83
1
7.64%
13.09
10.62%
9.42
7.38%
13.55
3.42%
29.25
1.19%
84.16
0.33%
302.76
2
6.61%
15.13
9.19%
10.89
6.38%
15.67
2.96%
33.81
1.03%
97.3
0.29%
350.02
3
3.81%
26.24
5.3%
18.88
3.68%
27.17
1.71%
58.63
0.59%
168.72
0.16%
606.8
4
1.65%
60.68
2.29%
43.65
1.59%
62.81
0.74%
135.56
0.26%
390.17
0.07%
1402.52
5
0.57%
175.38
0.79%
126.17
0.55%
181.52
0.26%
391.85
0.09%
1127.4
0.02%
4048.58
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.17% · Fair: 85.24
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 82.27% 17.73%
1.5 51.6% 48.4%
2.5 25.07% 74.93%
3.5 9.77% 90.23%
4.5 3.16% 96.84%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.42% 22.65
1 13.78% 7.26
2 21.49% 4.65
3 22.35% 4.47
4 17.43% 5.74
5+ 20.53% 4.87
Over 2.5 60.31% Under 2.5 39.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.19%
Draw 24.87%
Away Win 29.93%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.31%
Under 2.5 39.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.78%
No 38.22%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.49% 9.53 13.78% 7.26 75.73% 1.32
-1.5 24.27% 4.12 — 75.73% 1.32
-1.0 24.27% 4.12 21.34% 4.69 54.39% 1.84
-0.5 45.61% 2.19 — 54.39% 1.84
0 (PK) 45.61% 2.19 23.41% 4.27 30.98% 3.23
+0.5 69.02% 1.45 — 30.98% 3.23
+1.0 69.02% 1.45 17.15% 5.83 13.84% 7.23
+1.5 86.16% 1.16 — 13.84% 7.23
+2.0 86.16% 1.16 8.9% 11.24 4.94% 20.24

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.