Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.51%
Fair Odds 2.25
Draw
25.07%
Fair Odds 3.99
Away Win
30.42%
Fair Odds 3.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.75% Fair Odds 9.3

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.25 —
Draw 3.99 —
Away Win 3.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.75% 9.3
2 2-1 9.14% 10.94
3 1-0 7.74% 12.93
4 1-2 7.47% 13.38
5 2-0 6.58% 15.21
6 2-2 6.35% 15.74
7 0-1 6.32% 15.81
8 3-1 5.18% 19.31
9 0-0 4.55% 21.98
10 0-2 4.4% 22.75
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.55%
21.98
6.32%
15.81
4.4%
22.75
2.04%
49.1
0.71%
141.3
0.2%
508.13
1
7.74%
12.93
10.75%
9.3
7.47%
13.38
3.46%
28.88
1.2%
83.11
0.33%
298.95
2
6.58%
15.21
9.14%
10.94
6.35%
15.74
2.94%
33.98
1.02%
97.78
0.28%
351.74
3
3.73%
26.84
5.18%
19.31
3.6%
27.78
1.67%
59.96
0.58%
172.56
0.16%
620.73
4
1.58%
63.15
2.2%
45.43
1.53%
65.37
0.71%
141.08
0.25%
406.01
0.07%
1459.85
5
0.54%
185.74
0.75%
133.62
0.52%
192.27
0.24%
414.94
0.08%
1194.74
0.02%
4291.85
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.11% · Fair: 90.38
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.73% 18.27%
1.5 50.68% 49.32%
2.5 24.28% 75.72%
3.5 9.32% 90.68%
4.5 2.96% 97.04%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.55% 21.98
1 14.06% 7.11
2 21.72% 4.60
3 22.37% 4.47
4 17.28% 5.79
5+ 20.01% 5.00
Over 2.5 59.67% Under 2.5 40.33%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.51%
Draw 25.07%
Away Win 30.42%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 59.67%
Under 2.5 40.33%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 61.37%
No 38.63%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.08% 9.92 13.55% 7.38 76.37% 1.31
-1.5 23.63% 4.23 — 76.37% 1.31
-1.0 23.63% 4.23 21.27% 4.7 55.09% 1.82
-0.5 44.91% 2.23 — 55.09% 1.82
0 (PK) 44.91% 2.23 23.59% 4.24 31.5% 3.17
+0.5 68.5% 1.46 — 31.5% 3.17
+1.0 68.5% 1.46 17.39% 5.75 14.11% 7.09
+1.5 85.89% 1.16 — 14.11% 7.09
+2.0 85.89% 1.16 9.06% 11.04 5.05% 19.81

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.