Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.02%
Fair Odds 2.44
Draw
25.99%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
32.99%
Fair Odds 3.03
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.39% Fair Odds 8.78

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.44 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 3.03 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.39% 8.78
2 2-1 8.83% 11.33
3 1-0 8.19% 12.2
4 1-2 7.92% 12.63
5 0-1 7.35% 13.61
6 2-0 6.35% 15.75
7 2-2 6.13% 16.3
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 0-2 5.11% 19.58
10 3-1 4.56% 21.93
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
7.35%
13.61
5.11%
19.58
2.37%
42.26
0.82%
121.61
0.23%
437.45
1
8.19%
12.2
11.39%
8.78
7.92%
12.63
3.67%
27.27
1.27%
78.46
0.35%
282.25
2
6.35%
15.75
8.83%
11.33
6.13%
16.3
2.84%
35.18
0.99%
101.24
0.27%
364.17
3
3.28%
30.48
4.56%
21.93
3.17%
31.55
1.47%
68.09
0.51%
195.96
0.14%
704.72
4
1.27%
78.65
1.77%
56.58
1.23%
81.41
0.57%
175.72
0.2%
505.56
0.06%
1818.18
5
0.39%
253.74
0.55%
182.52
0.38%
262.61
0.18%
566.89
0.06%
1631.32
0.02%
5882.35
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.83% · Fair: 120.77
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.02%
Draw 25.99%
Away Win 32.99%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.15%
No 40.85%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.14% 12.28 12.33% 8.11 79.53% 1.26
-1.5 20.47% 4.88 — 79.53% 1.26
-1.0 20.47% 4.88 20.83% 4.8 58.7% 1.7
-0.5 41.3% 2.42 — 58.7% 1.7
0 (PK) 41.3% 2.42 24.5% 4.08 34.21% 2.92
+0.5 65.79% 1.52 — 34.21% 2.92
+1.0 65.79% 1.52 18.68% 5.35 15.53% 6.44
+1.5 84.47% 1.18 — 15.53% 6.44
+2.0 84.47% 1.18 9.92% 10.08 5.61% 17.82

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.