Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.7%
Fair Odds 2.88
Draw
27.16%
Fair Odds 3.68
Away Win
38.14%
Fair Odds 2.62
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.15% Fair Odds 8.23

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.88 —
Draw 3.68 —
Away Win 2.62 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.15% 8.23
2 0-1 9.07% 11.03
3 1-0 8.74% 11.44
4 1-2 8.44% 11.84
5 2-1 8.14% 12.29
6 0-0 6.52% 15.33
7 0-2 6.3% 15.87
8 2-0 5.86% 17.08
9 2-2 5.66% 17.68
10 1-3 3.91% 25.56
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.52%
15.33
9.07%
11.03
6.3%
15.87
2.92%
34.26
1.01%
98.58
0.28%
354.61
1
8.74%
11.44
12.15%
8.23
8.44%
11.84
3.91%
25.56
1.36%
73.57
0.38%
264.62
2
5.86%
17.08
8.14%
12.29
5.66%
17.68
2.62%
38.15
0.91%
109.79
0.25%
394.94
3
2.62%
38.24
3.64%
27.51
2.53%
39.58
1.17%
85.42
0.41%
245.82
0.11%
884.17
4
0.88%
114.13
1.22%
82.11
0.85%
118.15
0.39%
254.97
0.14%
733.68
0.04%
2638.52
5
0.23%
425.89
0.33%
306.37
0.23%
440.92
0.11%
951.47
0.04%
2739.73
0.01%
9803.92
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.57% · Fair: 176.37
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.82% 26.18%
1.5 38.73% 61.27%
2.5 15.22% 84.78%
3.5 4.72% 95.28%
4.5 1.2% 98.8%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.52% 15.33
1 17.80% 5.62
2 24.30% 4.11
3 22.12% 4.52
4 15.09% 6.62
5+ 14.16% 7.06
Over 2.5 51.37% Under 2.5 48.63%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.70%
Draw 27.16%
Away Win 38.14%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.37%
Under 2.5 48.63%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.43%
No 44.57%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.74% 17.41 10.45% 9.57 83.8% 1.19
-1.5 16.2% 6.17 — 83.8% 1.19
-1.0 16.2% 6.17 19.84% 5.04 63.97% 1.56
-0.5 36.03% 2.78 — 63.97% 1.56
0 (PK) 36.03% 2.78 25.64% 3.9 38.32% 2.61
+0.5 61.68% 1.62 — 38.32% 2.61
+1.0 61.68% 1.62 20.58% 4.86 17.75% 5.63
+1.5 82.25% 1.22 — 17.75% 5.63
+2.0 82.25% 1.22 11.25% 8.89 6.5% 15.38

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.