Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.42%
Fair Odds 3.18
Draw
27.8%
Fair Odds 3.6
Away Win
40.79%
Fair Odds 2.45
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.49% Fair Odds 8.01

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.18 —
Draw 3.6 —
Away Win 2.45 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.49% 8.01
2 0-1 10.32% 9.69
3 1-0 8.99% 11.13
4 1-2 8.68% 11.52
5 2-1 7.56% 13.23
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 7.18% 13.94
8 2-0 5.44% 18.39
9 2-2 5.25% 19.04
10 1-3 4.02% 24.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
10.32%
9.69
7.18%
13.94
3.32%
30.08
1.16%
86.56
0.32%
311.33
1
8.99%
11.13
12.49%
8.01
8.68%
11.52
4.02%
24.86
1.4%
71.54
0.39%
257.33
2
5.44%
18.39
7.56%
13.23
5.25%
19.04
2.43%
41.09
0.85%
118.25
0.24%
425.35
3
2.19%
45.6
3.05%
32.81
2.12%
47.2
0.98%
101.87
0.34%
293.17
0.09%
1054.85
4
0.66%
150.74
0.92%
108.45
0.64%
156.03
0.3%
336.81
0.1%
968.99
0.03%
3484.32
5
0.16%
623.05
0.22%
448.23
0.16%
644.75
0.07%
1390.82
0.03%
4000.0
0.01%
14492.75
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.46% · Fair: 215.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.42%
Draw 27.80%
Away Win 40.79%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.7%
No 47.3%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.47% 22.39 9.2% 10.87 86.33% 1.16
-1.5 13.67% 7.32 — 86.33% 1.16
-1.0 13.67% 7.32 18.99% 5.27 67.34% 1.48
-0.5 32.66% 3.06 — 67.34% 1.48
0 (PK) 32.66% 3.06 26.26% 3.81 41.08% 2.43
+0.5 58.92% 1.7 — 41.08% 2.43
+1.0 58.92% 1.7 21.81% 4.58 19.27% 5.19
+1.5 80.73% 1.24 — 19.27% 5.19
+2.0 80.73% 1.24 12.15% 8.23 7.12% 14.04

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.