Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
50.9%
Fair Odds 1.96
Draw
23.21%
Fair Odds 4.31
Away Win
25.88%
Fair Odds 3.86
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 9.49% Fair Odds 10.54

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.96 —
Draw 4.31 —
Away Win 3.86 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 9.49% 10.54
2 2-1 9.4% 10.64
3 1-0 6.88% 14.54
4 2-0 6.81% 14.69
5 1-2 6.55% 15.27
6 2-2 6.48% 15.42
7 3-1 6.2% 16.13
8 0-1 4.79% 20.86
9 3-0 4.49% 22.25
10 3-2 4.28% 23.37
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.47%
28.79
4.79%
20.86
3.31%
30.23
1.52%
65.72
0.52%
190.51
0.14%
690.13
1
6.88%
14.54
9.49%
10.54
6.55%
15.27
3.01%
33.2
1.04%
96.22
0.29%
348.68
2
6.81%
14.69
9.4%
10.64
6.48%
15.42
2.98%
33.53
1.03%
97.19
0.28%
352.11
3
4.49%
22.25
6.2%
16.13
4.28%
23.37
1.97%
50.8
0.68%
147.25
0.19%
533.62
4
2.22%
44.95
3.07%
32.58
2.12%
47.21
0.97%
102.64
0.34%
297.53
0.09%
1077.59
5
0.88%
113.52
1.22%
82.26
0.84%
119.22
0.39%
259.2
0.13%
751.31
0.04%
2724.8
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.88% · Fair: 53.23
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 86.19% 13.81%
1.5 58.85% 41.14%
2.5 31.79% 68.21%
3.5 13.93% 86.07%
4.5 5.09% 94.91%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.47% 28.79
1 11.67% 8.57
2 19.61% 5.10
3 21.96% 4.55
4 18.45% 5.42
5+ 24.84% 4.03
Over 2.5 65.25% Under 2.5 34.75%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 50.90%
Draw 23.21%
Away Win 25.88%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 65.25%
Under 2.5 34.75%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 64.51%
No 35.49%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 14.24% 7.02 15.56% 6.43 70.19% 1.42
-1.5 29.81% 3.36 — 70.19% 1.42
-1.0 29.81% 3.36 21.67% 4.61 48.52% 2.06
-0.5 51.48% 1.94 — 48.52% 2.06
0 (PK) 51.48% 1.94 21.79% 4.59 26.73% 3.74
+0.5 73.27% 1.36 — 26.73% 3.74
+1.0 73.27% 1.36 15.11% 6.62 11.62% 8.6
+1.5 88.38% 1.13 — 11.62% 8.6
+2.0 88.38% 1.13 7.56% 13.23 4.06% 24.61

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.