Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
47.65%
Fair Odds 2.1
Draw
24.23%
Fair Odds 4.13
Away Win
28.12%
Fair Odds 3.56
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.19% Fair Odds 9.81

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.1 —
Draw 4.13 —
Away Win 3.56 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.19% 9.81
2 2-1 9.33% 10.72
3 1-0 7.39% 13.54
4 1-2 7.03% 14.22
5 2-0 6.76% 14.8
6 2-2 6.43% 15.54
7 3-1 5.69% 17.58
8 0-1 5.57% 17.96
9 3-0 4.12% 24.26
10 0-0 4.04% 24.78
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.04%
24.78
5.57%
17.96
3.84%
26.02
1.77%
56.57
0.61%
163.99
0.17%
594.18
1
7.39%
13.54
10.19%
9.81
7.03%
14.22
3.23%
30.91
1.12%
89.61
0.31%
324.68
2
6.76%
14.8
9.33%
10.72
6.43%
15.54
2.96%
33.78
1.02%
97.92
0.28%
354.86
3
4.12%
24.26
5.69%
17.58
3.93%
25.48
1.81%
55.39
0.62%
160.54
0.17%
581.73
4
1.89%
53.03
2.6%
38.42
1.8%
55.69
0.83%
121.07
0.29%
350.88
0.08%
1270.65
5
0.69%
144.89
0.95%
104.99
0.66%
152.16
0.3%
330.8
0.1%
958.77
0.03%
3472.22
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.41% · Fair: 70.77
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 83.96% 16.04%
1.5 54.6% 45.4%
2.5 27.74% 72.26%
3.5 11.36% 88.64%
4.5 3.86% 96.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.04% 24.78
1 12.95% 7.72
2 20.79% 4.81
3 22.25% 4.49
4 17.85% 5.60
5+ 22.12% 4.52
Over 2.5 62.22% Under 2.5 37.78%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 47.65%
Draw 24.23%
Away Win 28.12%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 62.22%
Under 2.5 37.78%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 62.84%
No 37.16%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.98% 8.35 14.58% 6.86 73.44% 1.36
-1.5 26.56% 3.77 — 73.44% 1.36
-1.0 26.56% 3.77 21.58% 4.63 51.86% 1.93
-0.5 48.14% 2.08 — 51.86% 1.93
0 (PK) 48.14% 2.08 22.78% 4.39 29.08% 3.44
+0.5 70.92% 1.41 — 29.08% 3.44
+1.0 70.92% 1.41 16.27% 6.15 12.81% 7.81
+1.5 87.19% 1.15 — 12.81% 7.81
+2.0 87.19% 1.15 8.29% 12.06 4.52% 22.12

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.