Poisson football calculator: xG, score, match chance
Poisson calculator for betting / sports
How bookmakers set odds: Poisson + xG — this page helps you model that.
Uses Poisson (Wikipedia, EN).
Enter home/away xG: view odds or plain probabilities.
Improved football-tuned model: nudged draws & favorites vs plain Poisson.
Enter xG
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Match odds & output
| Result | Double | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Total
|
Over (0.5)
94.77%
|
Under (0.5)
5.23%
|
|
Over (1)
94.77%
|
Under (1)
5.23%
|
|
Over (1.5)
79.33%
|
Under (1.5)
20.67%
|
|
Over (2)
79.33%
|
Under (2)
20.67%
|
|
Over (2.5)
56.55%
|
Under (2.5)
43.45%
|
|
Over (3)
56.55%
|
Under (3)
43.45%
|
|
Over (3.5)
34.16%
|
Under (3.5)
65.84%
|
|
Over (4)
34.16%
|
Under (4)
65.84%
|
|
Over (4.5)
17.64%
|
Under (4.5)
82.36%
|
Handicap
|
Home (-2)
8.44%
|
Away (+2)
78.98%
|
|
Home (-1.5)
21.02%
|
Away (+1.5)
78.98%
|
|
Home (-1)
21.02%
|
Away (+1)
58.0%
|
|
Home (-0.5)
42.0%
|
Away (+0.5)
58.0%
|
|
Home (+0)
42.0%
|
Away (-0)
33.59%
|
|
Home (+0.5)
66.41%
|
Away (-0.5)
33.59%
|
|
Home (+1)
66.41%
|
Away (-1)
15.15%
|
|
Home (+1.5)
84.85%
|
Away (-1.5)
15.15%
|
|
Home (+2)
84.85%
|
Away (-2)
5.43%
|
Both to score (BTTS) (BTTS)
|
Yes
59.27%
|
No
40.73%
|
Home team total (OU)
|
Over (0.5)
79.2%
|
Under (0.5)
20.8%
|
|
Over (1)
79.2%
|
Under (1)
20.8%
|
|
Over (1.5)
46.53%
|
Under (1.5)
53.47%
|
|
Over (2)
46.53%
|
Under (2)
53.47%
|
|
Over (2.5)
20.89%
|
Under (2.5)
79.11%
|
|
Over (3)
20.89%
|
Under (3)
79.11%
|
|
Over (3.5)
7.47%
|
Under (3.5)
92.53%
|
|
Over (4)
7.47%
|
Under (4)
92.53%
|
|
Over (4.5)
2.21%
|
Under (4.5)
97.79%
|
Away team total (OU)
|
Over (0.5)
74.84%
|
Under (0.5)
25.16%
|
|
Over (1)
74.84%
|
Under (1)
25.16%
|
|
Over (1.5)
40.12%
|
Under (1.5)
59.88%
|
|
Over (2)
40.12%
|
Under (2)
59.88%
|
|
Over (2.5)
16.17%
|
Under (2.5)
83.83%
|
|
Over (3)
16.17%
|
Under (3)
83.83%
|
|
Over (3.5)
5.15%
|
Under (3.5)
94.85%
|
|
Over (4)
5.15%
|
Under (4)
94.85%
|
|
Over (4.5)
1.35%
|
Under (4.5)
98.65%
|
How this Poisson calculator works
It uses the following inputs:
- Home xG
- Away xG
From these it calculates:
- Prob. of each exact score
- Win / draw / win (1X2) probs
- Over/under goal probabilities
- BTTS (both to score) probabilities
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review match & market chances
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Best: blend with Elo/strength, home edge, and form
Still, Poisson is a core building block in sports & stats work
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
