Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
40.5%
Fair Odds 2.47
Draw
26.21%
Fair Odds 3.82
Away Win
33.29%
Fair Odds 3.0
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.54% Fair Odds 8.66

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.47 —
Draw 3.82 —
Away Win 3.0 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.54% 8.66
2 2-1 8.77% 11.4
3 1-0 8.36% 11.96
4 1-2 7.96% 12.56
5 0-1 7.59% 13.17
6 2-0 6.36% 15.73
7 2-2 6.05% 16.52
8 0-0 5.5% 18.17
9 0-2 5.24% 19.09
10 3-1 4.44% 22.5
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.5%
18.17
7.59%
13.17
5.24%
19.09
2.41%
41.49
0.83%
120.26
0.23%
435.73
1
8.36%
11.96
11.54%
8.66
7.96%
12.56
3.66%
27.3
1.26%
79.13
0.35%
286.7
2
6.36%
15.73
8.77%
11.4
6.05%
16.52
2.78%
35.92
0.96%
104.11
0.27%
377.22
3
3.22%
31.05
4.44%
22.5
3.07%
32.61
1.41%
70.89
0.49%
205.47
0.13%
744.6
4
1.22%
81.71
1.69%
59.21
1.17%
85.81
0.54%
186.57
0.18%
540.83
0.05%
1960.78
5
0.37%
268.82
0.51%
194.78
0.35%
282.25
0.16%
613.5
0.06%
1779.36
0.02%
6451.61
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.77% · Fair: 129.57
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.50% 18.17
1 15.96% 6.27
2 23.14% 4.32
3 22.37% 4.47
4 16.22% 6.17
5+ 16.82% 5.94
Over 2.5 55.4% Under 2.5 44.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 40.50%
Draw 26.21%
Away Win 33.29%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.4%
Under 2.5 44.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.47%
No 41.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.83% 12.78 12.14% 8.23 80.03% 1.25
-1.5 19.97% 5.01 — 80.03% 1.25
-1.0 19.97% 5.01 20.8% 4.81 59.23% 1.69
-0.5 40.77% 2.45 — 59.23% 1.69
0 (PK) 40.77% 2.45 24.71% 4.05 34.52% 2.9
+0.5 65.48% 1.53 — 34.52% 2.9
+1.0 65.48% 1.53 18.88% 5.3 15.64% 6.39
+1.5 84.36% 1.19 — 15.64% 6.39
+2.0 84.36% 1.19 10.01% 9.99 5.63% 17.76

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.