Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
35.14%
Fair Odds 2.85
Draw
27.17%
Fair Odds 3.68
Away Win
37.7%
Fair Odds 2.65
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.15% Fair Odds 8.23

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.85 —
Draw 3.68 —
Away Win 2.65 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.15% 8.23
2 0-1 9.0% 11.11
3 1-0 8.8% 11.36
4 1-2 8.38% 11.93
5 2-1 8.2% 12.19
6 0-0 6.52% 15.33
7 0-2 6.21% 16.1
8 2-0 5.94% 16.83
9 2-2 5.66% 17.67
10 1-3 3.86% 25.93
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.52%
15.33
9.0%
11.11
6.21%
16.1
2.86%
35.01
0.99%
101.46
0.27%
367.65
1
8.8%
11.36
12.15%
8.23
8.38%
11.93
3.86%
25.93
1.33%
75.16
0.37%
272.33
2
5.94%
16.83
8.2%
12.19
5.66%
17.67
2.6%
38.41
0.9%
111.35
0.25%
403.39
3
2.67%
37.39
3.69%
27.1
2.55%
39.27
1.17%
85.37
0.4%
247.46
0.11%
896.86
4
0.9%
110.79
1.25%
80.28
0.86%
116.35
0.4%
252.91
0.14%
733.14
0.04%
2659.57
5
0.24%
410.34
0.34%
297.35
0.23%
430.85
0.11%
937.21
0.04%
2717.39
0.01%
9803.92
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.57% · Fair: 176.68
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.52% 15.33
1 17.80% 5.62
2 24.30% 4.11
3 22.12% 4.52
4 15.09% 6.62
5+ 14.16% 7.06
Over 2.5 51.37% Under 2.5 48.63%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 35.14%
Draw 27.17%
Away Win 37.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.37%
Under 2.5 48.63%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.44%
No 44.56%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.89% 16.97 10.61% 9.43 83.5% 1.2
-1.5 16.5% 6.06 — 83.5% 1.2
-1.0 16.5% 6.06 19.99% 5.0 63.51% 1.57
-0.5 36.49% 2.74 — 63.51% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.49% 2.74 25.65% 3.9 37.86% 2.64
+0.5 62.14% 1.61 — 37.86% 2.64
+1.0 62.14% 1.61 20.43% 4.89 17.43% 5.74
+1.5 82.57% 1.21 — 17.43% 5.74
+2.0 82.57% 1.21 11.09% 9.02 6.35% 15.76

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.