Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
59.13%
Fair Odds 1.69
Draw
20.39%
Fair Odds 4.91
Away Win
20.48%
Fair Odds 4.88
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.13% Fair Odds 10.96

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.69 —
Draw 4.91 —
Away Win 4.88 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.13% 10.96
2 1-1 7.67% 13.04
3 3-1 7.24% 13.81
4 2-0 6.66% 15.01
5 2-2 6.25% 16.0
6 1-0 5.6% 17.87
7 3-0 5.28% 18.92
8 1-2 5.25% 19.04
9 3-2 4.96% 20.16
10 4-1 4.31% 23.22
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
2.35%
42.52
3.22%
31.04
2.21%
45.31
1.01%
99.22
0.35%
289.69
0.09%
1057.08
1
5.6%
17.87
7.67%
13.04
5.25%
19.04
2.4%
41.69
0.82%
121.71
0.23%
444.25
2
6.66%
15.01
9.13%
10.96
6.25%
16.0
2.85%
35.03
0.98%
102.28
0.27%
373.27
3
5.28%
18.92
7.24%
13.81
4.96%
20.16
2.26%
44.16
0.78%
128.93
0.21%
470.59
4
3.14%
31.8
4.31%
23.22
2.95%
33.89
1.35%
74.21
0.46%
216.68
0.13%
790.51
5
1.5%
66.82
2.05%
48.77
1.4%
71.2
0.64%
155.91
0.22%
455.17
0.06%
1661.13
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 3.72% · Fair: 26.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 90.74% 9.26%
1.5 68.71% 31.28%
2.5 42.5% 57.49%
3.5 21.71% 78.29%
4.5 9.33% 90.66%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 2.35% 42.52
1 8.82% 11.34
2 16.54% 6.05
3 20.67% 4.84
4 19.38% 5.16
5+ 32.24% 3.10
Over 2.5 72.29% Under 2.5 27.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 59.13%
Draw 20.39%
Away Win 20.48%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 72.29%
Under 2.5 27.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 67.68%
No 32.32%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 21.0% 4.76 17.59% 5.69 61.41% 1.63
-1.5 38.59% 2.59 — 61.41% 1.63
-1.0 38.59% 2.59 21.27% 4.7 40.13% 2.49
-0.5 59.86% 1.67 — 40.13% 2.49
0 (PK) 59.86% 1.67 19.06% 5.25 21.07% 4.75
+0.5 78.93% 1.27 — 21.07% 4.75
+1.0 78.93% 1.27 12.25% 8.17 8.82% 11.33
+1.5 91.17% 1.1 — 8.82% 11.33
+2.0 91.17% 1.1 5.83% 17.16 3.0% 33.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.