Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.07%
Fair Odds 2.32
Draw
25.63%
Fair Odds 3.9
Away Win
31.3%
Fair Odds 3.19
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.16% Fair Odds 8.96

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.32 —
Draw 3.9 —
Away Win 3.19 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.16% 8.96
2 2-1 9.04% 11.06
3 1-0 8.15% 12.28
4 1-2 7.65% 13.08
5 0-1 6.89% 14.52
6 2-0 6.6% 15.15
7 2-2 6.19% 16.15
8 0-0 5.03% 19.89
9 3-1 4.88% 20.48
10 0-2 4.72% 21.19
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.03%
19.89
6.89%
14.52
4.72%
21.19
2.16%
46.4
0.74%
135.48
0.2%
494.56
1
8.15%
12.28
11.16%
8.96
7.65%
13.08
3.49%
28.64
1.2%
83.63
0.33%
305.25
2
6.6%
15.15
9.04%
11.06
6.19%
16.15
2.83%
35.36
0.97%
103.24
0.27%
376.79
3
3.56%
28.06
4.88%
20.48
3.34%
29.9
1.53%
65.48
0.52%
191.2
0.14%
697.84
4
1.44%
69.3
1.98%
50.58
1.35%
73.84
0.62%
161.68
0.21%
472.14
0.06%
1724.14
5
0.47%
213.86
0.64%
156.1
0.44%
227.89
0.2%
499.0
0.07%
1457.73
0.02%
5319.15
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.93% · Fair: 107.94
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.03% 19.89
1 15.04% 6.65
2 22.48% 4.45
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.75% 5.97
5+ 18.31% 5.46
Over 2.5 57.46% Under 2.5 42.54%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.07%
Draw 25.63%
Away Win 31.30%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 57.46%
Under 2.5 42.54%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.83%
No 40.17%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.14% 10.94 13.05% 7.66 77.8% 1.29
-1.5 22.2% 4.5 — 77.8% 1.29
-1.0 22.2% 4.5 21.22% 4.71 56.58% 1.77
-0.5 43.42% 2.3 — 56.58% 1.77
0 (PK) 43.42% 2.3 24.14% 4.14 32.44% 3.08
+0.5 67.56% 1.48 — 32.44% 3.08
+1.0 67.56% 1.48 17.95% 5.57 14.49% 6.9
+1.5 85.51% 1.17 — 14.49% 6.9
+2.0 85.51% 1.17 9.34% 10.71 5.15% 19.41

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.