Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.89%
Fair Odds 2.39
Draw
25.94%
Fair Odds 3.85
Away Win
32.17%
Fair Odds 3.11
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.37% Fair Odds 8.79

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.39 —
Draw 3.85 —
Away Win 3.11 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.37% 8.79
2 2-1 8.93% 11.2
3 1-0 8.3% 12.05
4 1-2 7.79% 12.84
5 0-1 7.24% 13.81
6 2-0 6.52% 15.35
7 2-2 6.11% 16.35
8 0-0 5.29% 18.92
9 0-2 4.96% 20.16
10 3-1 4.67% 21.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.29%
18.92
7.24%
13.81
4.96%
20.16
2.27%
44.14
0.78%
128.87
0.21%
470.37
1
8.3%
12.05
11.37%
8.79
7.79%
12.84
3.56%
28.11
1.22%
82.08
0.33%
299.58
2
6.52%
15.35
8.93%
11.2
6.11%
16.35
2.79%
35.81
0.96%
104.57
0.26%
381.68
3
3.41%
29.33
4.67%
21.41
3.2%
31.25
1.46%
68.43
0.5%
199.8
0.14%
729.39
4
1.34%
74.72
1.83%
54.54
1.26%
79.62
0.57%
174.34
0.2%
509.16
0.05%
1858.74
5
0.42%
237.98
0.58%
173.7
0.39%
253.55
0.18%
555.25
0.06%
1620.75
0.02%
5917.16
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.84% · Fair: 119.15
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 79.2% 20.8%
1.5 46.53% 53.47%
2.5 20.89% 79.11%
3.5 7.47% 92.53%
4.5 2.21% 97.79%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.29% 18.92
1 15.54% 6.43
2 22.85% 4.38
3 22.39% 4.47
4 16.46% 6.08
5+ 17.48% 5.72
Over 2.5 56.32% Under 2.5 43.68%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.89%
Draw 25.94%
Away Win 32.17%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 56.32%
Under 2.5 43.68%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 59.07%
No 40.93%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.5% 11.76 12.64% 7.91 78.86% 1.27
-1.5 21.14% 4.73 — 78.86% 1.27
-1.0 21.14% 4.73 21.07% 4.75 57.79% 1.73
-0.5 42.21% 2.37 — 57.79% 1.73
0 (PK) 42.21% 2.37 24.45% 4.09 33.35% 3.0
+0.5 66.65% 1.5 — 33.35% 3.0
+1.0 66.65% 1.5 18.38% 5.44 14.96% 6.68
+1.5 85.04% 1.18 — 14.96% 6.68
+2.0 85.04% 1.18 9.62% 10.39 5.34% 18.73

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.