Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.02%
Fair Odds 2.56
Draw
26.66%
Fair Odds 3.75
Away Win
34.32%
Fair Odds 2.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.84% Fair Odds 8.45

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.56 —
Draw 3.75 —
Away Win 2.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.84% 8.45
2 1-0 8.64% 11.57
3 2-1 8.58% 11.65
4 0-1 8.17% 12.25
5 1-2 8.11% 12.33
6 2-0 6.27% 15.96
7 0-0 5.96% 16.78
8 2-2 5.88% 17.01
9 0-2 5.59% 17.88
10 3-1 4.15% 24.1
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.96%
16.78
8.17%
12.25
5.59%
17.88
2.55%
39.15
0.87%
114.3
0.24%
417.19
1
8.64%
11.57
11.84%
8.45
8.11%
12.33
3.7%
27.0
1.27%
78.83
0.35%
287.69
2
6.27%
15.96
8.58%
11.65
5.88%
17.01
2.69%
37.24
0.92%
108.73
0.25%
396.83
3
3.03%
33.02
4.15%
24.1
2.84%
35.18
1.3%
77.05
0.44%
224.97
0.12%
821.02
4
1.1%
91.08
1.5%
66.48
1.03%
97.06
0.47%
212.54
0.16%
620.73
0.04%
2262.44
5
0.32%
314.07
0.44%
229.25
0.3%
334.67
0.14%
733.14
0.05%
2141.33
0.01%
7812.5
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.67% · Fair: 150.11
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.96% 16.78
1 16.81% 5.95
2 23.70% 4.22
3 22.28% 4.49
4 15.71% 6.37
5+ 15.54% 6.43
Over 2.5 53.53% Under 2.5 46.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.02%
Draw 26.66%
Away Win 34.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.53%
Under 2.5 46.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 57.09%
No 42.91%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.05% 14.19 11.59% 8.63 81.36% 1.23
-1.5 18.64% 5.36 — 81.36% 1.23
-1.0 18.64% 5.36 20.59% 4.86 60.77% 1.65
-0.5 39.23% 2.55 — 60.77% 1.65
0 (PK) 39.23% 2.55 25.15% 3.98 35.61% 2.81
+0.5 64.39% 1.55 — 35.61% 2.81
+1.0 64.39% 1.55 19.45% 5.14 16.16% 6.19
+1.5 83.84% 1.19 — 16.16% 6.19
+2.0 83.84% 1.19 10.35% 9.66 5.81% 17.21

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.