Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.04%
Fair Odds 2.63
Draw
26.89%
Fair Odds 3.72
Away Win
35.07%
Fair Odds 2.85
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.98% Fair Odds 8.34

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.63 —
Draw 3.72 —
Away Win 2.85 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.98% 8.34
2 1-0 8.75% 11.43
3 0-1 8.5% 11.77
4 2-1 8.45% 11.84
5 1-2 8.21% 12.18
6 0-0 6.2% 16.12
7 2-0 6.17% 16.22
8 0-2 5.82% 17.18
9 2-2 5.79% 17.28
10 3-1 3.97% 25.18
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.2%
16.12
8.5%
11.77
5.82%
17.18
2.66%
37.61
0.91%
109.82
0.25%
400.8
1
8.75%
11.43
11.98%
8.34
8.21%
12.18
3.75%
26.68
1.28%
77.88
0.35%
284.25
2
6.17%
16.22
8.45%
11.84
5.79%
17.28
2.64%
37.84
0.91%
110.47
0.25%
403.23
3
2.9%
34.5
3.97%
25.18
2.72%
36.76
1.24%
80.5
0.43%
235.07
0.12%
857.63
4
1.02%
97.88
1.4%
71.44
0.96%
104.3
0.44%
228.36
0.15%
666.67
0.04%
2433.09
5
0.29%
347.1
0.39%
253.36
0.27%
369.82
0.12%
809.72
0.04%
2364.07
0.01%
8620.69
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.62% · Fair: 161.71
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.20% 16.12
1 17.25% 5.80
2 23.97% 4.17
3 22.21% 4.50
4 15.44% 6.48
5+ 14.92% 6.70
Over 2.5 52.58% Under 2.5 47.42%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.04%
Draw 26.89%
Away Win 35.07%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 52.58%
Under 2.5 47.42%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.38%
No 43.62%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.59% 15.17 11.23% 8.9 82.18% 1.22
-1.5 17.82% 5.61 — 82.18% 1.22
-1.0 17.82% 5.61 20.4% 4.9 61.78% 1.62
-0.5 38.22% 2.62 — 61.78% 1.62
0 (PK) 38.22% 2.62 25.38% 3.94 36.4% 2.75
+0.5 63.6% 1.57 — 36.4% 2.75
+1.0 63.6% 1.57 19.82% 5.05 16.58% 6.03
+1.5 83.42% 1.2 — 16.58% 6.03
+2.0 83.42% 1.2 10.6% 9.43 5.98% 16.73

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.