Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.82%
Fair Odds 2.87
Draw
27.33%
Fair Odds 3.66
Away Win
37.84%
Fair Odds 2.64
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.25% Fair Odds 8.17

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.87 —
Draw 3.66 —
Away Win 2.64 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.25% 8.17
2 0-1 9.21% 10.86
3 1-0 8.94% 11.19
4 1-2 8.39% 11.92
5 2-1 8.14% 12.28
6 0-0 6.72% 14.88
7 0-2 6.31% 15.86
8 2-0 5.94% 16.82
9 2-2 5.58% 17.93
10 1-3 3.83% 26.11
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.72%
14.88
9.21%
10.86
6.31%
15.86
2.88%
34.72
0.99%
101.37
0.27%
369.96
1
8.94%
11.19
12.25%
8.17
8.39%
11.92
3.83%
26.11
1.31%
76.22
0.36%
278.16
2
5.94%
16.82
8.14%
12.28
5.58%
17.93
2.55%
39.26
0.87%
114.61
0.24%
418.24
3
2.64%
37.95
3.61%
27.7
2.47%
40.44
1.13%
88.55
0.39%
258.53
0.11%
943.4
4
0.88%
114.13
1.2%
83.31
0.82%
121.61
0.38%
266.31
0.13%
777.6
0.04%
2840.91
5
0.23%
429.0
0.32%
313.19
0.22%
457.25
0.1%
1001.0
0.03%
2923.98
0.01%
10638.3
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.54% · Fair: 186.39
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.72% 14.88
1 18.15% 5.51
2 24.50% 4.08
3 22.05% 4.54
4 14.88% 6.72
5+ 13.71% 7.29
Over 2.5 50.64% Under 2.5 49.36%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.82%
Draw 27.33%
Away Win 37.84%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.64%
Under 2.5 49.36%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.86%
No 45.14%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.72% 17.48 10.48% 9.54 83.79% 1.19
-1.5 16.21% 6.17 — 83.79% 1.19
-1.0 16.21% 6.17 19.97% 5.01 63.83% 1.57
-0.5 36.17% 2.76 — 63.83% 1.57
0 (PK) 36.17% 2.76 25.81% 3.87 38.02% 2.63
+0.5 61.98% 1.61 — 38.02% 2.63
+1.0 61.98% 1.61 20.57% 4.86 17.45% 5.73
+1.5 82.55% 1.21 — 17.45% 5.73
+2.0 82.55% 1.21 11.12% 8.99 6.32% 15.81

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.