Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.29%
Fair Odds 3.1
Draw
27.85%
Fair Odds 3.59
Away Win
39.86%
Fair Odds 2.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.52% Fair Odds 7.99

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.1 —
Draw 3.59 —
Away Win 2.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.52% 7.99
2 0-1 10.18% 9.83
3 1-0 9.14% 10.95
4 1-2 8.57% 11.66
5 2-1 7.7% 12.99
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 0-2 6.97% 14.35
8 2-0 5.62% 17.8
9 2-2 5.27% 18.97
10 1-3 3.92% 25.54
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
10.18%
9.83
6.97%
14.35
3.18%
31.42
1.09%
91.73
0.3%
334.78
1
9.14%
10.95
12.52%
7.99
8.57%
11.66
3.92%
25.54
1.34%
74.58
0.37%
272.18
2
5.62%
17.8
7.7%
12.99
5.27%
18.97
2.41%
41.53
0.82%
121.26
0.23%
442.48
3
2.3%
43.41
3.16%
31.69
2.16%
46.26
0.99%
101.3
0.34%
295.77
0.09%
1079.91
4
0.71%
141.18
0.97%
103.05
0.66%
150.44
0.3%
329.38
0.1%
961.54
0.03%
3508.77
5
0.17%
573.72
0.24%
418.94
0.16%
611.62
0.07%
1338.69
0.03%
3906.25
0.01%
14285.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.46% · Fair: 218.67
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.77% 29.23%
1.5 34.82% 65.18%
2.5 12.71% 87.29%
3.5 3.64% 96.36%
4.5 0.86% 99.14%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.29%
Draw 27.85%
Away Win 39.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.79%
No 47.21%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.72% 21.18 9.52% 10.51 85.76% 1.17
-1.5 14.24% 7.02 — 85.76% 1.17
-1.0 14.24% 7.02 19.33% 5.17 66.43% 1.51
-0.5 33.57% 2.98 — 66.43% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.57% 2.98 26.31% 3.8 40.12% 2.49
+0.5 59.88% 1.67 — 40.12% 2.49
+1.0 59.88% 1.67 21.52% 4.65 18.6% 5.38
+1.5 81.4% 1.23 — 18.6% 5.38
+2.0 81.4% 1.23 11.81% 8.47 6.79% 14.74

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.