Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.98%
Fair Odds 3.34
Draw
28.26%
Fair Odds 3.54
Away Win
41.76%
Fair Odds 2.39
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.69% Fair Odds 7.88

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.34 —
Draw 3.54 —
Away Win 2.39 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.69% 7.88
2 0-1 11.13% 8.98
3 1-0 9.26% 10.79
4 1-2 8.69% 11.5
5 0-0 8.13% 12.3
6 0-2 7.63% 13.11
7 2-1 7.23% 13.82
8 2-0 5.28% 18.94
9 2-2 4.96% 20.18
10 1-3 3.97% 25.19
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.13%
12.3
11.13%
8.98
7.63%
13.11
3.48%
28.71
1.19%
83.83
0.33%
306.0
1
9.26%
10.79
12.69%
7.88
8.69%
11.5
3.97%
25.19
1.36%
73.53
0.37%
268.38
2
5.28%
18.94
7.23%
13.82
4.96%
20.18
2.26%
44.19
0.78%
129.02
0.21%
470.81
3
2.01%
49.83
2.75%
36.37
1.88%
53.1
0.86%
116.28
0.29%
339.56
0.08%
1239.16
4
0.57%
174.86
0.78%
127.63
0.54%
186.32
0.25%
408.0
0.08%
1191.9
0.02%
4347.83
5
0.13%
766.87
0.18%
559.91
0.12%
816.99
0.06%
1788.91
0.02%
5235.6
0.01%
19230.77
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.4% · Fair: 247.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.13% 12.30
1 20.40% 4.90
2 25.60% 3.91
3 21.42% 4.67
4 13.44% 7.44
5+ 11.02% 9.08
Over 2.5 45.87% Under 2.5 54.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.98%
Draw 28.26%
Away Win 41.76%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.87%
Under 2.5 54.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.73%
No 49.27%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.9% 25.61 8.63% 11.59 87.47% 1.14
-1.5 12.53% 7.98 — 87.47% 1.14
-1.0 12.53% 7.98 18.65% 5.36 68.82% 1.45
-0.5 31.18% 3.21 — 68.82% 1.45
0 (PK) 31.18% 3.21 26.72% 3.74 42.1% 2.38
+0.5 57.9% 1.73 — 42.1% 2.38
+1.0 57.9% 1.73 22.41% 4.46 19.69% 5.08
+1.5 80.31% 1.25 — 19.69% 5.08
+2.0 80.31% 1.25 12.46% 8.03 7.23% 13.83

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.