Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.72%
Fair Odds 3.36
Draw
28.31%
Fair Odds 3.53
Away Win
41.97%
Fair Odds 2.38
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.71% Fair Odds 7.87

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.36 —
Draw 3.53 —
Away Win 2.38 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.71% 7.87
2 0-1 11.25% 8.89
3 1-0 9.28% 10.78
4 1-2 8.7% 11.49
5 0-0 8.21% 12.18
6 0-2 7.7% 12.98
7 2-1 7.18% 13.93
8 2-0 5.24% 19.08
9 2-2 4.92% 20.33
10 1-3 3.98% 25.16
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.21%
12.18
11.25%
8.89
7.7%
12.98
3.52%
28.43
1.2%
82.99
0.33%
302.94
1
9.28%
10.78
12.71%
7.87
8.7%
11.49
3.98%
25.16
1.36%
73.45
0.37%
268.1
2
5.24%
19.08
7.18%
13.93
4.92%
20.33
2.25%
44.52
0.77%
130.01
0.21%
474.38
3
1.97%
50.66
2.7%
36.98
1.85%
53.98
0.85%
118.2
0.29%
345.18
0.08%
1259.45
4
0.56%
179.31
0.76%
130.89
0.52%
191.09
0.24%
418.41
0.08%
1221.0
0.02%
4464.29
5
0.13%
793.65
0.17%
579.04
0.12%
845.31
0.05%
1851.85
0.02%
5405.41
0.01%
19607.84
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.4% · Fair: 250.82
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.7% 32.3%
1.5 31.19% 68.81%
2.5 10.57% 89.43%
3.5 2.8% 97.2%
4.5 0.61% 99.39%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.21% 12.18
1 20.52% 4.87
2 25.65% 3.90
3 21.38% 4.68
4 13.36% 7.48
5+ 10.88% 9.19
Over 2.5 45.62% Under 2.5 54.38%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.72%
Draw 28.31%
Away Win 41.97%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.62%
Under 2.5 54.38%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.49%
No 49.51%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.82% 26.19 8.53% 11.73 87.66% 1.14
-1.5 12.34% 8.1 — 87.66% 1.14
-1.0 12.34% 8.1 18.57% 5.39 69.09% 1.45
-0.5 30.91% 3.24 — 69.09% 1.45
0 (PK) 30.91% 3.24 26.77% 3.74 42.32% 2.36
+0.5 57.68% 1.73 — 42.32% 2.36
+1.0 57.68% 1.73 22.51% 4.44 19.81% 5.05
+1.5 80.19% 1.25 — 19.81% 5.05
+2.0 80.19% 1.25 12.53% 7.98 7.28% 13.74

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.