Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
27.37%
Fair Odds 3.65
Draw
28.67%
Fair Odds 3.49
Away Win
43.96%
Fair Odds 2.28
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.8% Fair Odds 7.81

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.65 —
Draw 3.49 —
Away Win 2.28 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.8% 7.81
2 0-1 12.3% 8.13
3 1-0 9.34% 10.71
4 0-0 8.98% 11.13
5 1-2 8.77% 11.41
6 0-2 8.43% 11.86
7 2-1 6.65% 15.03
8 2-0 4.86% 20.59
9 2-2 4.56% 21.94
10 1-3 4.0% 24.98
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.98%
11.13
12.3%
8.13
8.43%
11.86
3.85%
25.98
1.32%
75.86
0.36%
276.85
1
9.34%
10.71
12.8%
7.81
8.77%
11.41
4.0%
24.98
1.37%
72.93
0.38%
266.17
2
4.86%
20.59
6.65%
15.03
4.56%
21.94
2.08%
48.04
0.71%
140.27
0.2%
512.03
3
1.68%
59.39
2.31%
43.35
1.58%
63.28
0.72%
138.58
0.25%
404.53
0.07%
1477.1
4
0.44%
228.41
0.6%
166.72
0.41%
243.37
0.19%
533.05
0.06%
1555.21
0.02%
5681.82
5
0.09%
1097.69
0.12%
801.28
0.09%
1169.59
0.04%
2564.1
0.01%
7462.69
0.0%
27027.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.36% · Fair: 277.47
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 64.65% 35.35%
1.5 27.9% 72.1%
2.5 8.78% 91.22%
3.5 2.15% 97.85%
4.5 0.43% 99.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.98% 11.13
1 21.65% 4.62
2 26.08% 3.83
3 20.95% 4.77
4 12.62% 7.92
5+ 9.71% 10.30
Over 2.5 43.29% Under 2.5 56.71%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 27.37%
Draw 28.67%
Away Win 43.96%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.29%
Under 2.5 56.71%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.23%
No 51.77%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.09% 32.34 7.62% 13.13 89.29% 1.12
-1.5 10.71% 9.34 — 89.29% 1.12
-1.0 10.71% 9.34 17.78% 5.63 71.51% 1.4
-0.5 28.49% 3.51 — 71.51% 1.4
0 (PK) 28.49% 3.51 27.13% 3.69 44.39% 2.25
+0.5 55.61% 1.8 — 44.39% 2.25
+1.0 55.61% 1.8 23.42% 4.27 20.97% 4.77
+1.5 79.03% 1.27 — 20.97% 4.77
+2.0 79.03% 1.27 13.22% 7.57 7.75% 12.9

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.