Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
38.97%
Fair Odds 2.57
Draw
26.77%
Fair Odds 3.74
Away Win
34.26%
Fair Odds 2.92
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.91% Fair Odds 8.4

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.57 —
Draw 3.74 —
Away Win 2.92 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.91% 8.4
2 1-0 8.76% 11.42
3 2-1 8.57% 11.66
4 0-1 8.27% 12.09
5 1-2 8.1% 12.35
6 2-0 6.3% 15.86
7 0-0 6.08% 16.44
8 2-2 5.83% 17.15
9 0-2 5.62% 17.78
10 3-1 4.12% 24.3
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.08%
16.44
8.27%
12.09
5.62%
17.78
2.55%
39.22
0.87%
115.37
0.24%
424.09
1
8.76%
11.42
11.91%
8.4
8.1%
12.35
3.67%
27.24
1.25%
80.12
0.34%
294.55
2
6.3%
15.86
8.57%
11.66
5.83%
17.15
2.64%
37.83
0.9%
111.27
0.24%
409.17
3
3.03%
33.04
4.12%
24.3
2.8%
35.73
1.27%
78.81
0.43%
231.8
0.12%
852.51
4
1.09%
91.79
1.48%
67.49
1.01%
99.26
0.46%
218.91
0.16%
643.92
0.04%
2369.67
5
0.31%
318.67
0.43%
234.36
0.29%
344.59
0.13%
760.46
0.04%
2237.14
0.01%
8196.72
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.64% · Fair: 155.38
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 74.33% 25.67%
1.5 39.43% 60.57%
2.5 15.69% 84.31%
3.5 4.93% 95.07%
4.5 1.27% 98.73%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.08% 16.44
1 17.03% 5.87
2 23.84% 4.20
3 22.25% 4.49
4 15.57% 6.42
5+ 15.23% 6.56
Over 2.5 53.05% Under 2.5 46.95%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 38.97%
Draw 26.77%
Away Win 34.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.05%
Under 2.5 46.95%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.72%
No 43.28%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.98% 14.33 11.57% 8.64 81.45% 1.23
-1.5 18.55% 5.39 — 81.45% 1.23
-1.0 18.55% 5.39 20.63% 4.85 60.82% 1.64
-0.5 39.18% 2.55 — 60.82% 1.64
0 (PK) 39.18% 2.55 25.26% 3.96 35.56% 2.81
+0.5 64.44% 1.55 — 35.56% 2.81
+1.0 64.44% 1.55 19.49% 5.13 16.07% 6.22
+1.5 83.93% 1.19 — 16.07% 6.22
+2.0 83.93% 1.19 10.32% 9.69 5.75% 17.4

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.